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Deep learning models frequently make incorrect predictions with high confidence when presented with test examples that are not well represented in their training dataset. We propose a novel and straightforward approach to estimate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-04 Tiago Ramalho , Miguel Miranda

Deterministic neural networks (NNs) are increasingly being deployed in safety critical domains, where calibrated, robust, and efficient measures of uncertainty are crucial. In this paper, we propose a novel method for training non-Bayesian…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-25 Alexander Amini , Wilko Schwarting , Ava Soleimany , Daniela Rus

Deep neural networks are behind many of the recent successes in machine learning applications. However, these models can produce overconfident decisions while encountering out-of-distribution (OOD) examples or making a wrong prediction.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-24 Navid Kardan , Ankit Sharma , Kenneth O. Stanley

Reliable uncertainty quantification on RUL prediction is crucial for informative decision-making in predictive maintenance. In this context, we assess some of the latest developments in the field of uncertainty quantification for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-10 Luis Basora , Arthur Viens , Manuel Arias Chao , Xavier Olive

Deep neural networks (DNNs) remain challenged by distribution shifts in complex open-world domains like automated driving (AD): Robustness against yet unknown novel objects (semantic shift) or styles like lighting conditions (covariate…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-05-13 Mert Keser , Halil Ibrahim Orhan , Niki Amini-Naieni , Gesina Schwalbe , Alois Knoll , Matthias Rottmann

In supervised learning, understanding an input's proximity to the training data can help a model decide whether it has sufficient evidence for reaching a reliable prediction. While powerful probabilistic models such as Gaussian Processes…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-19 Ifigeneia Apostolopoulou , Benjamin Eysenbach , Frank Nielsen , Artur Dubrawski

Thanks to graph neural networks (GNNs), semi-supervised node classification has shown the state-of-the-art performance in graph data. However, GNNs have not considered different types of uncertainties associated with class probabilities to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-26 Xujiang Zhao , Feng Chen , Shu Hu , Jin-Hee Cho

With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-08-15 Qingyang Wu , He Li , Lexin Li , Zhou Yu

Deep neural networks (DNNs) deployed in real-world applications can encounter out-of-distribution (OOD) data and adversarial examples. These represent distinct forms of distributional shifts that can significantly impact DNNs' reliability…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-09 Naveen Karunanayake , Ravin Gunawardena , Suranga Seneviratne , Sanjay Chawla

We provide single-model estimates of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks. To estimate aleatoric uncertainty, we propose Simultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR), a loss function to learn all the conditional quantiles…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-09 Natasa Tagasovska , David Lopez-Paz

Recent performance breakthroughs in Artificial intelligence (AI) and Machine learning (ML), especially advances in Deep learning (DL), the availability of powerful, easy-to-use ML libraries (e.g., scikit-learn, TensorFlow, PyTorch.), and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-24 Mahmoud Yaseen , Xu Wu

Unknown examples that are unseen during training often appear in real-world computer vision tasks, and an intelligent self-learning system should be able to differentiate between known and unknown examples. Open set recognition, which…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2020-05-29 Jaeyeon Jang , Chang Ouk Kim

Building robust online content recommendation systems requires learning complex interactions between user preferences and content features. The field has evolved rapidly in recent years from traditional multi-arm bandit and collaborative…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2018-05-08 Yoel Zeldes , Stavros Theodorakis , Efrat Solodnik , Aviv Rotman , Gil Chamiel , Dan Friedman

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are famous for their high prediction accuracy, but they are also known for their black-box nature and poor interpretability. We consider the problem of variable selection, that is, selecting the input variables…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-18 Zixuan Song , Jun Li

Evidential deep learning (EDL) has shown remarkable success in uncertainty estimation. However, there is still room for improvement, particularly in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and classification tasks. The limited OOD detection…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-15 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

A common machine learning task is to discriminate between normal and anomalous data points. In practice, it is not always sufficient to reach high accuracy at this task, one also would like to understand why a given data point has been…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-01-23 Jacob Kauffmann , Klaus-Robert Müller , Grégoire Montavon

Recent work has focused on data-driven learning of the evolution of unknown systems via deep neural networks (DNNs), with the goal of conducting long time prediction of the evolution of the unknown system. Training a DNN with low…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-28 Victor Churchill , Steve Manns , Zhen Chen , Dongbin Xiu

Measurement of uncertainty of predictions from machine learning methods is important across scientific domains and applications. We present, to our knowledge, the first such technique that quantifies the uncertainty of predictions from a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-04 Alex Hagen , Karl Pazdernik , Nicole LaHaye , Marjolein Oostrom

Evidence-based deep learning represents a burgeoning paradigm for uncertainty estimation, offering reliable predictions with negligible extra computational overheads. Existing methods usually adopt Kullback-Leibler divergence to estimate…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-04-18 Yan Zhang , Ming Li , Chun Li , Zhaoxia Liu , Ye Zhang , Fei Richard Yu

A rise in popularity of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), attributed to more powerful GPUs and widely available datasets, has seen them being increasingly used within safety-critical domains. One such domain, self-driving, has benefited from…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-11-19 Rhiannon Michelmore , Marta Kwiatkowska , Yarin Gal