相关论文: On the number of bins in a rank histogram

Histograms are convenient non-parametric density estimators, which continue to be used ubiquitously. Summary quantities estimated from histogram-based probability density models depend on the choice of the number of bins. We introduce a…

The problem of testing the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems is revisited. A popular tool to assess the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems (for scalar verifications) is the rank histogram, this histogram is expected to be…

Any decision making process that relies on a probabilistic forecast of future events necessarily requires a calibrated forecast. This paper proposes new methods for empirically assessing forecast calibration in a multivariate setting where…

Data points are placed in bins when a histogram is created, but there is always a decision to be made about the number or width of the bins. This decision is often made arbitrarily or subjectively, but it need not be. A jackknife or…

Predictions are often probabilities; e.g., a prediction could be for precipitation tomorrow, but with only a 30% chance. Given such probabilistic predictions together with the actual outcomes, "reliability diagrams" help detect and diagnose…

The histogram is widely used as a simple, exploratory display of data, but it is usually not clear how to choose the number and size of bins. We construct a confidence set of distribution functions that optimally address the two main tasks…

This paper presents a quantitative user study to evaluate how well users can visually perceive the underlying data distribution from a histogram representation. We used different sample and bin sizes and four different distributions…

It has been documented that Spread-Error equality and a flat rank histogram are necessary but insufficient for demonstrating ensemble forecast reliability. Nevertheless, these metrics are heavily relied upon, both in the literature and at…

Many predictions are probabilistic in nature; for example, a prediction could be for precipitation tomorrow, but with only a 30 percent chance. Given both the predictions and the actual outcomes, "reliability diagrams" (also known as…

Rank and PIT histograms are established tools to assess the calibration of probabilistic forecasts. They not only check whether an ensemble forecast is calibrated, but they also reveal what systematic biases (if any) are present in the…

The histogram is an analysis tool in widespread use within many sciences, with high energy physics as a prime example. However, there exists an inherent bias in the choice of binning for the histogram, with different choices potentially…

For an AI system to be reliable, the confidence it expresses in its decisions must match its accuracy. To assess the degree of match, examples are typically binned by confidence and the per-bin mean confidence and accuracy are compared.…

Accurate calibration of probabilistic predictive models learned is critical for many practical prediction and decision-making tasks. There are two main categories of methods for building calibrated classifiers. One approach is to develop…

Bin covering is a dual version of classic bin packing. Thus, the goal is to cover as many bins as possible, where covering a bin means packing items of total size at least one in the bin. For online bin covering, competitive analysis fails…

When randomized ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are implemented, a basic question arises: Is the ensemble large enough? In particular, the practitioner desires a rigorous guarantee that a given ensemble will perform…

The histogram method is a powerful non-parametric approach for estimating the probability density function of a continuous variable. But the construction of a histogram, compared to the parametric approaches, demands a large number of…

Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but…

We propose a new method of histogram construction, providing a fully Bayesian approach to irregular histograms. Our procedure applies Bayesian model selection to a piecewise constant model of the underlying distribution, resulting in a…

We prove calibration guarantees for the popular histogram binning (also called uniform-mass binning) method of Zadrozny and Elkan [2001]. Histogram binning has displayed strong practical performance, but theoretical guarantees have only…

Bin packing is a classic optimization problem with a wide range of applications, from load balancing to supply chain management. In this work, we study the online variant of the problem, in which a sequence of items of various sizes must be…