相关论文: Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 temporal spr…

While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point…

We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an…

Intercity travel is one of the most important parameters for combating a pandemic. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in different computational studies involving intercity connections. In this study, the effects of intercity…

Background: To assist policy makers in taking adequate decisions to stop the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, accurate forecasting of the disease propagation is of paramount importance. Materials and Methods: This paper presents a deep learning…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…

Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is essential to construct public health interventions. Spatially referenced data can provide richer opportunities to understand the mechanism of the…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect communities around the world. To date, almost 6 million people have died as a consequence of COVID-19, and more than one-quarter of a billion people are estimated to have been infected…

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has affected millions of individuals around the world and has posed a significant challenge to global healthcare. From the early days of the pandemic, it became clear that it is highly contagious and that…

In this paper, a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model has been used to track the evolution of the spread of the COVID-19 virus in four countries of interest. In particular, the epidemic model, that depends on some basic characteristics,…

We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rates in populations containing multiple types…

The growing literature on the propagation of COVID-19 relies on various dynamic SIR-type models (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) which yield model-dependent results. For transparency and ease of comparing the results, we introduce a common…

We present an interpretable high-resolution spatio-temporal model to estimate COVID-19 deaths together with confirmed cases one-week ahead of the current time, at the county-level and weekly aggregated, in the United States. A notable…

The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…

Understanding the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been one of the most pressing problems of the recent past. Network models present a potent approach to studying such spreading phenomena because of their ability to represent complex social…

We have devised a data-driven framework for uncovering hidden control strategies used by an evolutionary system described by an evolutionary probability distribution. This innovative framework enables deciphering of the concealed mechanisms…

Standard epidemiological models for COVID-19 employ variants of compartment (SIR) models at local scales, implicitly assuming spatially uniform local mixing. Here, we examine the effect of employing more geographically detailed diffusion…

The COVID-19 pandemic has evolved over time through multiple spatial and temporal dynamics. The varying extent of interactions among different geographical areas can result to a complex pattern of spreading so that influences between these…

We extend the classical SIR model of infectious disease spread to account for time dependence in the parameters, which also include diffusivities. The temporal dependence accounts for the changing characteristics of testing, quarantine and…

We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…

Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…