相关论文: Forecasting in Non-stationary Environments with Fu…

The paper describes the deep learning approach for forecasting non-stationary time series with using time trend correction in a neural network model. Along with the layers for predicting sales values, the neural network model includes a…

Predicting volatility in financial markets, including stocks, index ETFs, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies, remains a challenging task due to the inherent complexity and non-linear dynamics of these time series. In this study, I apply…

A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for…

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) offer strong zero-shot forecasting via large-scale pre-training, yet fine-tuning remains critical for boosting performance in domains with limited public data. With the growing number of TSFMs,…

We propose a nonstationary functional time series forecasting method with an application to age-specific mortality rates observed over the years. The method begins by taking the first-order differencing and estimates its long-run covariance…

While time series prediction is an important, actively studied problem, the predictive accuracy of time series models is complicated by non-stationarity. We develop a fast and effective approach to allow for non-stationarity in the…

The multivariate time series forecasting has attracted more and more attention because of its vital role in different fields in the real world, such as finance, traffic, and weather. In recent years, many research efforts have been proposed…

We introduce a new sequential methodology to calibrate the fixed parameters and track the stochastic dynamical variables of a state-space system. The proposed method is based on the nested hybrid filtering (NHF) framework of [1], that…

We measure the influence of different time-scales on the dynamics of financial market data. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying…

Recently the study of modeling a non-stationary signal as a superposition of amplitude and frequency-modulated Fourier-like oscillatory modes has been a very active research area. The synchrosqueezing transform (SST) is a powerful method…

The diversity of time series applications and scarcity of domain-specific data highlight the need for time-series models with strong few-shot learning capabilities. In this work, we propose a novel training scheme and a transformer-based…

This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal…

We propose a nonparametric algorithm to detect structural breaks in the conditional mean and/or variance of a time series. Our method does not assume any specific parametric form for the dependence structure of the regressor, the time…

We present the method of complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) for analyzing nonstationary financial time series. This noise-assisted approach decomposes any time series into a number…

Recent progress in foundation models has enabled strong zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. In this work, we show that such capabilities can also emerge from tabular foundation models. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method…

In order to enhance the performance of Transformer models for long-term multivariate forecasting while minimizing computational demands, this paper introduces the Joint Time-Frequency Domain Transformer (JTFT). JTFT combines time and…

A method based on wavelet transform and genetic programming is proposed for characterizing and modeling variations at multiple scales in non-stationary time series. The cyclic variations, extracted by wavelets and smoothened by cubic…

This paper proposes methods of predicting dynamic time series (including non-stationary ones) based on a linguistic approach, namely, the study of occurrences and repetition of so-called N-grams. This approach is used in computational…

In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a non-stationary gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval,…

In this paper, a time-varying leader-follower formation control of nonholonomic mobile robots based on a trajectory tracking control strategy is considered. In the time-varying formation, the relative bearing and distance of each follower…