相关论文: Robust posterior inference when statistically emul…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter inference by training neural networks on forward simulations. It is being applied both for intractable likelihoods as well as under time constraints on the posterior sampling. After…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

In Bayesian analysis, the posterior follows from the data and a choice of a prior and a likelihood. One hopes that the posterior is robust to reasonable variation in the choice of prior and likelihood, since this choice is made by the…

Many models in natural language processing define probabilistic distributions over linguistic structures. We argue that (1) the quality of a model' s posterior distribution can and should be directly evaluated, as to whether probabilities…

Predictive models that accurately emulate complex scientific processes can achieve exponential speed-ups over numerical simulators or experiments, and at the same time provide surrogates for improving the subsequent analysis. Consequently,…

Many modern applications of Bayesian inference, such as in cosmology, are based on complicated forward models with high-dimensional parameter spaces. This considerably limits the sampling of posterior distributions conditioned on observed…

We propose a novel approximate inference algorithm that approximates a target distribution by amortising the dynamics of a user-selected MCMC sampler. The idea is to initialise MCMC using samples from an approximation network, apply the…

The steep computational cost of diffusion models at inference hinders their use as fast physics emulators. In the context of image and video generation, this computational drawback has been addressed by generating in the latent space of an…

The inference of physical parameters from measured distributions constitutes a core task in physics data analyses. Among recent deep learning methods, so-called conditional invertible neural networks provide an elegant approach owing to…

Tight performance specifications in combination with operational constraints make model predictive control (MPC) the method of choice in various industries. As the performance of an MPC controller depends on a sufficiently accurate…

Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring high-dimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural…

Recent studies demonstrate that diffusion models can serve as a strong prior for solving inverse problems. A prominent example is Diffusion Posterior Sampling (DPS), which approximates the posterior distribution of data given the measure…

In ill-posed inverse problems, it is commonly desirable to obtain insight into the full spectrum of plausible solutions, rather than extracting only a single reconstruction. Information about the plausible solutions and their likelihoods is…

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

The use of machine learning algorithms is an attractive way to produce very fast detector simulations for scattering reactions that can otherwise be computationally expensive. Here we develop a factorised approach where we deal with each…

Regional climate models (RCMs) are essential tools for simulating and studying regional climate variability and change. However, their high computational cost limits the production of comprehensive ensembles of regional climate projections…

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Accurate predictions for the non-linear matter power spectrum are needed to confront theory with observations in current and near future weak lensing and galaxy clustering surveys. We propose a computationally cheap method to create an…

Bayesian methods are appealing in their flexibility in modeling complex data and ability in capturing uncertainty in parameters. However, when Bayes' rule does not result in tractable closed-form, most approximate inference algorithms lack…

We propose a general framework using spike-and-slab prior distributions to aid with the development of high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Our framework allows inference with a general quasi-likelihood function. We show that highly…