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Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) models deal with estimating conditional distributions. The conditions imposed on the distribution are the inputs of the model. CDE is a challenging task as there is a fundamental trade-off between model…

The solutions of Hamiltonian equations are known to describe the underlying phase space of a mechanical system. In this article, we propose a novel spatio-temporal model using a strategic modification of the Hamiltonian equations,…

We develop a flexible spline-based Bayesian hidden Markov model stochastic weather generator to statistically model daily precipitation over time by season at individual locations. The model naturally accounts for missing data (considered…

Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…

We propose a statistical model for narrowing line shapes in spectroscopy that are well approximated as linear combinations of Lorentzian or Voigt functions. We introduce a log-Gaussian Cox process to represent the peak locations thereby…

We introduce a methodology for nonlinear inverse problems using a variational Bayesian approach where the unknown quantity is a spatial field. A structured Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model is used both to construct a…

The recently proposed non-Gaussian Mat\'{e}rn random field models, generated through Stochastic Partial differential equations (SPDEs), are extended by considering the class of Generalized Hyperbolic processes as noise forcings. The models…

We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to perform state inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. Current state-of-the-art methods to address this problem rely on particle MCMC techniques and its variants, such…

Multilevel linear models allow flexible statistical modelling of complex data with different levels of stratification. Identifying the most appropriate model from the large set of possible candidates is a challenging problem. In the…

In this chapter, we show how to efficiently model high-dimensional extreme peaks-over-threshold events over space in complex non-stationary settings, using extended latent Gaussian Models (LGMs), and how to exploit the fitted model in…

Many inference problems involve inferring the number $N$ of components in some region, along with their properties $\{\mathbf{x}_i\}_{i=1}^N$, from a dataset $\mathcal{D}$. A common statistical example is finite mixture modelling. In the…

We study the problem of approximate sampling from non-log-concave distributions, e.g., Gaussian mixtures, which is often challenging even in low dimensions due to their multimodality. We focus on performing this task via Markov chain Monte…

Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) is an iterative algorithm used to generate samples from a distribution that is known only up to a normalizing constant. The nonasymptotic dependence of its mixing time on the dimension and target accuracy is…

Gaussian latent variable models are a key class of Bayesian hierarchical models with applications in many fields. Performing Bayesian inference on such models can be challenging as Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms struggle with the…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

In the last two decades, the linear model of coregionalization (LMC) has been widely used to model multivariate spatial processes. However, it can be a challenging task to conduct likelihood-based inference for such models because of the…

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

A key task in Bayesian statistics is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). However, without any assumptions, sampling (even approximately) can be #P-hard, and few…

As Gaussian processes are used to answer increasingly complex questions, analytic solutions become scarcer and scarcer. Monte Carlo methods act as a convenient bridge for connecting intractable mathematical expressions with actionable…

The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…