相关论文: VCBART: Bayesian trees for varying coefficients

Technology and collaboration enable dramatic increases in the size of psychological and psychiatric data collections, but finding structure in these large data sets with many collected variables is challenging. Decision tree ensembles like…

Grocery recommendation is an important recommendation use-case, which aims to predict which items a user might choose to buy in the future, based on their shopping history. However, existing methods only represent each user and item by…

Ensembles of decision trees are a useful tool for obtaining for obtaining flexible estimates of regression functions. Examples of these methods include gradient boosted decision trees, random forests, and Bayesian CART. Two potential…

Count-compositional data arise in many different fields, including high-throughput sequencing experiments, ecological surveys, and palaeoclimate studies, where a common, important goal is to understand how covariates relate to the observed…

Model comparison is the cornerstone of theoretical progress in psychological research. Common practice overwhelmingly relies on tools that evaluate competing models by balancing in-sample descriptive adequacy against model flexibility, with…

Categorical covariates such as race, sex, or group are ubiquitous in regression analysis. While main-only (or ANCOVA) linear models are predominant, cat-modified linear models that include categorical-continuous or categorical-categorical…

The quantile varying coefficient (VC) model can flexibly capture dynamical patterns of regression coefficients. In addition, due to the quantile check loss function, it is robust against outliers and heavy-tailed distributions of the…

Additive regression trees are flexible non-parametric models and popular off-the-shelf tools for real-world non-linear regression. In application domains, such as bioinformatics, where there is also demand for probabilistic predictions with…

We address modelling and computational issues for multiple treatment effect inference under many potential confounders. Our main contribution is providing a trade-off between preventing the omission of relevant confounders, while not…

In this paper we develop the randomized Sharded Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (SBT) model. We introduce a randomization auxiliary variable and a sharding tree to decide partitioning of data, and fit each partition component to a…

Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) are the workhorse in macroeconomic forecasting. Research in the last decade has established the importance of allowing time-varying volatility to capture both secular and cyclical variations in…

Current implementations of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) are based on axis-aligned decision rules that recursively partition the feature space using a single feature at a time. Several authors have demonstrated that oblique…

We propose a variable splitting binary tree (VSBT) model based on Bayesian context tree (BCT) models for time series segmentation. Unlike previous applications of BCT models, the tree structure in our model represents interval partitioning…

Both Bayesian and varying coefficient models are very useful tools in practice as they can be used to model parameter heterogeneity in a generalizable way. Motivated by the need of enhancing Marketing Mix Modeling at Uber, we propose a…

Traditional regression models assume stationary relationships between predictors and responses, failing to capture the spatial heterogeneity present in many environmental, epidemiological, and ecological processes. To address this…

Spatial count data models are used to explain and predict the frequency of phenomena such as traffic accidents in geographically distinct entities such as census tracts or road segments. These models are typically estimated using Bayesian…

This paper introduces BART-RDD, a sum-of-trees regression model built around a novel regression tree prior, which incorporates the special covariate structure of regression discontinuity designs. Specifically, the tree splitting process is…

Hierarchical Bayesian methods enable information sharing across multiple related regression problems. While standard practice is to model regression parameters (effects) as (1) exchangeable across datasets and (2) correlated to differing…

This paper introduces Type 2 Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (TOBART-2). BART can produce accurate individual-specific treatment effect estimates. However, in practice estimates are often biased by sample selection. We extend the…

We discuss Bayesian model uncertainty analysis and forecasting in sequential dynamic modeling of multivariate time series. The perspective is that of a decision-maker with a specific forecasting objective that guides thinking about relevant…