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We present a new method for linear and nonlinear, lagged and contemporaneous constraint-based causal discovery from observational time series in the presence of latent confounders. We show that existing causal discovery methods such as FCI…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-03 Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

Reconstructing the causal relationships behind the phenomena we observe is a fundamental challenge in all areas of science. Discovering causal relationships through experiments is often infeasible, unethical, or expensive in complex…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-09-09 Christian Reiser

Inferring causal relations from observational time series data is a key problem across science and engineering whenever experimental interventions are infeasible or unethical. Increasing data availability over the past decades has spurred…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-02 Elena Saggioro , Jana de Wiljes , Marlene Kretschmer , Jakob Runge

Discovering causal relations from observational time series without making the stationary assumption is a significant challenge. In practice, this challenge is common in many areas, such as retail sales, transportation systems, and medical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-11 Shanyun Gao , Raghavendra Addanki , Tong Yu , Ryan A. Rossi , Murat Kocaoglu

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-02 Kevin Debeire , Jakob Runge , Andreas Gerhardus , Veronika Eyring

Causal discovery from time series data is a typical problem setting across the sciences. Often, multiple datasets of the same system variables are available, for instance, time series of river runoff from different catchments. The local…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-23 Wiebke Günther , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Many questions in science center around the fundamental problem of understanding causal relationships. However, most constraint-based causal discovery algorithms, including the well-celebrated PC algorithm, often incur an exponential number…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-05 Kirankumar Shiragur , Jiaqi Zhang , Caroline Uhler

Causal processes in nature may contain cycles, and real datasets may violate causal sufficiency as well as contain selection bias. No constraint-based causal discovery algorithm can currently handle cycles, latent variables and selection…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-05-08 Eric V. Strobl

The standard constraint-based paradigm for causal discovery with incomplete data -- impute first, test second -- is frequently miscalibrated: any consistent conditional independence (CI) test rejects a true null with probability approaching…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-07 Thomas S. Robinson , Ranjit Lall

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying causal relationships from observational data, is highly challenging for AI systems. In a time series modeling context, traditional causal discovery methods mainly consider constrained scenarios…

In this study, we present a novel constraint-based algorithm for causal structure learning specifically designed for nonlinear autoregressive time series. Our algorithm significantly reduces computational complexity compared to existing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-11 Mohammad Fesanghary , Achintya Gopal

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-06-02 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Gal Novik

Testing for conditional independence is a core aspect of constraint-based causal discovery. Although commonly used tests are perfect in theory, they often fail to reject independence in practice, especially when conditioning on multiple…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-03-13 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

Time series data are found in many areas of healthcare such as medical time series, electronic health records (EHR), measurements of vitals, and wearable devices. Causal discovery, which involves estimating causal relationships from…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-18 Muhammad Hasan Ferdous , Uzma Hasan , Md Osman Gani

Conventional temporal causal discovery (CD) methods suffer from high dimensionality, fail to identify lagged causal relationships, and often ignore dynamics in relations. In this study, we present a novel constraint-based CD approach for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-07 Muhammad Hasan Ferdous , Uzma Hasan , Md Osman Gani

Learning causal structure is useful in many areas of artificial intelligence, including planning, robotics, and explanation. Constraint-based structure learning algorithms such as PC use conditional independence (CI) tests to infer causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-15 Erica Cai , Andrew McGregor , David Jensen

Conditional independence (CI) testing is frequently used in data analysis and machine learning for various scientific fields and it forms the basis of constraint-based causal discovery. Oftentimes, CI testing relies on strong, rather…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-21 Wiebke Günther , Urmi Ninad , jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

We consider the problem of learning causal relationships from relational data. Existing approaches rely on queries to a relational conditional independence (RCI) oracle to establish and orient causal relations in such a setting. In…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-12-06 Sanghack Lee , Vasant Honavar

Constraint-based causal discovery methods require a large number of conditional independence (CI) tests, which severely limits their practical applicability due to high computational complexity. Therefore, it is crucial to design an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-10 Shunyu Zhao , Yanfeng Yang , Shuai Li , Kenji Fukumizu

Causal structure discovery from observational data is fundamental to the causal understanding of autonomous systems such as medical decision support systems, advertising campaigns and self-driving cars. This is essential to solve well-known…

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