相关论文: BARD: A structured technique for group elicitation…

In this paper, we propose a new deep learning approach, called neural association model (NAM), for probabilistic reasoning in artificial intelligence. We propose to use neural networks to model association between any two events in a…

Despite their success and widespread adoption, the opaque nature of deep neural networks (DNNs) continues to hinder trust, especially in critical applications. Current interpretability solutions often yield inconsistent or oversimplified…

We present CLP(BN), a novel approach that aims at expressing Bayesian networks through the constraint logic programming framework. Arguably, an important limitation of traditional Bayesian networks is that they are propositional, and thus…

Whether stochastic or parametric, the Pareto/NBD model can only be utilized for an in-sample prediction rather than an out-of-sample prediction. This research thus provides a neural network based extension of the Pareto/NBD model to…

An Artificial Intelligence (AI) system is an autonomous system which emulates human mental and physical activities such as Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act, called the OODA process. An AI system performing the OODA process requires a…

The score-based structure learning of Bayesian network (BN) is an effective way to learn BN models, which are regarded as some of the most compelling probabilistic graphical models in the field of representation and reasoning under…

We extend Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), inspired by the Dirac notation in quantum mechanics, to multivariable probability systems and static Bayesian networks (BNs). By defining probability distributions and conditional expectations…

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model…

State-of-the-art recommender system (RS) mostly rely on complex deep neural network (DNN) model structure, which makes it difficult to provide explanations along with RS decisions. Previous researchers have proved that providing…

Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be useful for decision-making or discovering causal relationships. However, traditional methods often fail in modern applications, which exhibit a larger number of observed variables than data…

This report summarises the outcomes of a systematic literature search to identify Bayesian network models used to support decision making in healthcare. After describing the search methodology, the selected research papers are briefly…

Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs) are a powerful tool for reasoning under uncertainty about complex real-world problems. Such problems evolve over time, responding to external shocks as they occur. To support decision-making, CBNs require a…

We explore Bayesian reasoning as a means to quantify uncertainty in neural networks for question answering. Starting with a multilayer perceptron on the Iris dataset, we show how posterior inference conveys confidence in predictions. We…

Large language models increasingly operate in interactive settings where solving a task requires multiple rounds of information exchange with a user. However, most current systems treat dialogue reactively and lack a principled mechanism to…

Ensuring safe operation of safety-critical complex systems interacting with their environment poses significant challenges, particularly when the system's world model relies on machine learning algorithms to process the perception input. A…

We present two methods to reduce the complexity of Bayesian network (BN) classifiers. First, we introduce quantization-aware training using the straight-through gradient estimator to quantize the parameters of BNs to few bits. Second, we…

The graph structure of a Bayesian network (BN) can be learned from data using the well-known score-and-search approach. Previous work has shown that incorporating structured representations of the conditional probability distributions…

We introduce a novel framework for the estimation of the posterior distribution over the weights of a neural network, based on a new probabilistic interpretation of adaptive optimisation algorithms such as AdaGrad and Adam. We demonstrate…

Uncertainty in state or model parameters is common in robotics and typically handled by acquiring system measurements that yield information about the uncertain quantities of interest. Inputs to a nonlinear dynamical system yield outcomes…