相关论文: A copula-based time series model for global horizo…

We assume that we have multiple ordinal time series and we would like to specify their joint distribution. In general it is difficult to create multivariate distribution that can be easily used to jointly model ordinal variables and the…

We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…

Stationary and ergodic time series can be constructed using an s-vine decomposition based on sets of bivariate copula functions. The extension of such processes to infinite copula sequences is considered and shown to yield a rich class of…

The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is…

We propose a novel distributional regression model for a multivariate response vector based on a copula process over the covariate space. It uses the implicit copula of a Gaussian multivariate regression, which we call a ``regression…

We propose a new variational Bayes estimator for high-dimensional copulas with discrete, or a combination of discrete and continuous, margins. The method is based on a variational approximation to a tractable augmented posterior, and is…

We propose a class of dynamic vine copula models. This is an extension of static vine copulas and a generalization of dynamic C-vine and D-vine copulas studied by Almeida et al (2016) and Goel and Mehra (2019). Within this class, we allow…

Electricity generation from burning fossil fuels is one of the major contributors to global warming. Renewable energy sources are a viable alternative to produce electrical energy and to reduce the emission from the power industry. These…

With the increasing penetration of solar power into power systems, forecasting becomes critical in power system operations. In this paper, an hourly-similarity (HS) based method is developed for 1-hour-ahead (1HA) global horizontal…

A novel copula-based multivariate panel ordinal model is developed to estimate structural relations among components of well-being. Each ordinal time-series is modelled using a copula-based Markov model to relate the marginal distributions…

We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple…

Copula models are flexible tools to represent complex structures of dependence for multivariate random variables. According to Sklar's theorem (Sklar, 1959), any d-dimensional absolutely continuous density can be uniquely represented as the…

Analysing dependent risks is an important task for insurance companies. A dependency is reflected in the fact that information about one random variable provides information about the likely distribution of values of another random…

A time-varying bivariate copula joint model, which models the repeatedly measured longitudinal outcome at each time point and the survival data jointly by both the random effects and time-varying bivariate copulas, is proposed in this…

We address an important yet challenging problem - modeling high-dimensional dependencies across multivariates such as financial indicators in heterogeneous markets. In reality, a market couples and influences others over time, and the…

Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a…

A frequent task in exploratory data analysis consists in examining pairwise dependencies between data variables. Popular approaches include visualizing correlation or scatter plot matrices. However, both methods can be misleading. The…

One of the main goals in non-life insurance is to estimate the claims reserve distribution. A generalized time series model, that allows for modeling the conditional mean and variance of the claim amounts, is proposed for the claims…

Parametric copula families have been known to flexibly capture various dependence patterns, e.g., either positive or negative dependence in either the lower or upper tails of bivariate distributions. In this paper, our objective is to…

Many time series applications require access to multi-step forecast trajectories in the form of sample paths. Recently, time series foundation models have leveraged multi-step lookahead predictions to improve the quality and efficiency of…