相关论文: Uncertainty Quantification in Ensembles of Honest …

Random forests are powerful non-parametric regression method but are severely limited in their usage in the presence of randomly censored observations, and naively applied can exhibit poor predictive performance due to the incurred biases.…

The last decade has witnessed a growing interest in random forest models which are recognized to exhibit good practical performance, especially in high-dimensional settings. On the theoretical side, however, their predictive power remains…

We propose a way to construct fiducial distributions for a multidimensional parameter using a step-by-step conditional procedure related to the inferential importance of the components of the parameter. For discrete models, in which the…

Out-of-bag error is commonly used as an estimate of generalisation error in ensemble-based learning models such as random forests. We present confidence intervals for this quantity using the delta-method-after-bootstrap and the…

Modern regression applications can involve hundreds or thousands of variables which motivates the use of variable selection methods. Bayesian variable selection defines a posterior distribution on the possible subsets of the variables…

The use of ensembles of neural networks (NNs) for the quantification of predictive uncertainty is widespread. However, the current justification is intuitive rather than analytical. This work proposes one minor modification to the normal…

Generalized additive models (GAMs) have become a leading modelclass for interpretable machine learning. However, there are many algorithms for training GAMs, and these can learn different or even contradictory models, while being equally…

Recent studies have shown that ensemble approaches could not only improve accuracy and but also estimate model uncertainty in deep learning. However, it requires a large number of parameters according to the increase of ensemble models for…

Using Machine Learning systems in the real world can often be problematic, with inexplicable black-box models, the assumed certainty of imperfect measurements, or providing a single classification instead of a probability distribution. This…

While linear mixed modeling methods are foundational concepts introduced in any statistical education, adequate general methods for interval estimation involving models with more than a few variance components are lacking, especially in the…

Certifiable, adaptive uncertainty estimates for unknown quantities are an essential ingredient of sequential decision-making algorithms. Standard approaches rely on problem-dependent concentration results and are limited to a specific…

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Big Data often presents as massive non-probability samples. Not only is the selection mechanism often unknown, but larger data volume amplifies the relative contribution of selection bias to total error. Existing bias adjustment approaches…

Random forests are classical ensemble algorithms that construct multiple randomized decision trees and aggregate their predictions using naive averaging. \citet{zhou2019deep} further propose a deep forest algorithm with multi-layer forests,…

Analysis of sample survey data often requires adjustments to account for missing data in the outcome variables of principal interest. Standard adjustment methods based on item imputation or on propensity weighting factors rely heavily on…

Clinical decision-making demands uncertainty quantification that provides both distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision, requirements that existing methods fail to jointly satisfy. We present a hybrid…

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Random forest (RF) methodology is one of the most popular machine learning techniques for prediction problems. In this article, we discuss some cases where random forests may suffer and propose a novel generalized RF method, namely…

This work affords new insights into Bayesian CART in the context of structured wavelet shrinkage. The main thrust is to develop a formal inferential framework for Bayesian tree-based regression. We reframe Bayesian CART as a g-type prior…

Random forests are an ensemble method relevant for many problems, such as regression or classification. They are popular due to their good predictive performance (compared to, e.g., decision trees) requiring only minimal tuning of…