相关论文: Accuracy of Gaussian approximation in nonparametri…

We prove a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for a general class of high dimensional nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems in the vanishing noise limit. We propose a sufficient condition on the growth rate of the number of unknown parameters under…

Piecewise constant priors are routinely used in the Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model for survival analysis. Despite its popularity, large sample properties of this Bayesian method are not yet well understood. This work provides a…

Gaussian time-series models are often specified through their spectral density. Such models present several computational challenges, in particular because of the non-sparse nature of the covariance matrix. We derive a fast approximation of…

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

We analyze the posterior contraction rates of parameters in Bayesian models via the Langevin diffusion process, in particular by controlling moments of the stochastic process and taking limits. Analogous to the non-asymptotic analysis of…

Bayesian methods are a popular choice for statistical inference in small-data regimes due to the regularization effect induced by the prior. In the context of density estimation, the standard nonparametric Bayesian approach is to target the…

Bayesian hypothesis tests leverage posterior probabilities, Bayes factors, or credible intervals to inform data-driven decision making. We propose a framework for power curve approximation with such hypothesis tests. We present a fast…

Often the regression function appearing in fields like economics, engineering, biomedical sciences obeys a system of higher order ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The equations are usually not analytically solvable. We are interested…

We consider a non-parametric Bayesian model for conditional densities. The model is a finite mixture of normal distributions with covariate dependent multinomial logit mixing probabilities. A prior for the number of mixture components is…

The well-known Bayes theorem assumes that a posterior distribution is a probability distribution. However, the posterior distribution may no longer be a probability distribution if an improper prior distribution (non-probability measure)…

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a reflected diffusion model $dX_t = b (X_t)dt + \sigma(X_t) dW_t,$ with discretely sampled observations $X_0, X_\Delta, \dots, X_{n\Delta}$. We analyse the nonlinear inverse problem…

We study a Bayesian approach to nonparametric estimation of the periodic drift function of a one-dimensional diffusion from continuous-time data. Rewriting the likelihood in terms of local time of the process, and specifying a Gaussian…

Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

We investigate the frequentist coverage of Bayesian credible sets in a nonparametric setting. We consider a scale of priors of varying regularity and choose the regularity by an empirical Bayes method. Next we consider a central set of…

Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

We study the reknown deconvolution problem of recovering a distribution function from independent replicates (signal) additively contaminated with random errors (noise), whose distribution is known. We investigate whether a Bayesian…

We investigate the problem of deriving posterior concentration rates under different loss functions in nonparametric Bayes. We first provide a lower bound on posterior coverages of shrinking neighbourhoods that relates the metric or loss…