相关论文: Response of Vertical Velocities in Extratropical P…

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…

Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…

Extreme near-surface moist heat and severe convective storms are among the leading causes of weather-related damages worldwide. Here, we show that episodes of extreme moist heat and severe convection frequently co-occur across midlatitude…

Moist heatwaves and convective storms frequently co-occur, posing compound risks. Although historically concentrated in the tropics, these moist weather extremes are projected to intensify substantially towards the midlatitudes, with…

Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent and large latent heat release. The causal relationships between these factors are often not obvious, however, and the roles…

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

The vertical velocity in convective clouds ($w_c$) mediates convective anvil development and global moisture transport, influencing Earth's energy budget, but has yet to be estimated globally over long periods due to the absence of…

Modern climate change presents unprecedented challenges, posing critical crises that threaten sustainable development, human well-being, and planetary health. A significant concern is the potential for global warming to cause irreversible…

Precipitation extremes produced by convection have been found to intensify with near-surface temperatures at a Clausius-Clapeyron rate of $6$ to $7\%$ K$^{-1}$ in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). However, these…

In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to modified thermodynamic forcing or…

Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…

Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…

Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger abrupt transitions in moisture regimes remains incomplete. This challenge…

Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…

The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…

Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle, amplifying risks to ecosystems and society. While extreme rainfall appears to exhibit stronger sensitivity to global warming compared to mean rainfall rates, a unifying…

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

Water vapor is not only Earth's dominant greenhouse gas. Through the release of latent heat when it condenses, it also plays an active role in dynamic processes that shape the global circulation of the atmosphere and thus climate. Here we…