相关论文: Comparing statistical methods to predict leptospir…
In the last two decades dengue cases increased significantly throughout the world. In several regions dengue re-emerged, particularly in Latin America, where dengue cases not only increased but also occurred more frequently. It is therefore…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
This paper explores seasonal and long-memory time series properties by using the seasonal fractional ARIMA model when the seasonal data has one and two seasonal periods and short-memory counterparts. The stationarity and invertibility…
Chronic diseases are long-lasting conditions that require lifelong medical attention. Using big EMR data, we have developed early disease risk prediction models for five common chronic diseases: diabetes, hypertension, CKD, COPD, and…
We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that…
A semiempirical model, based in the logistic map, has been succesfully applied to forecast important quantities along the several phases of the outbreak of the covid-19 for different countries. This paper shows how the model was calibrated…
Accurate forecasts of weekly mortality are essential for public health and the insurance industry. We develop a forecasting framework that extends the Lee-Carter model with age- and region-specific seasonal effects and penalized distributed…
Sepsis is a life-threatening condition that seriously endangers millions of people over the world. Hopefully, with the widespread availability of electronic health records (EHR), predictive models that can effectively deal with clinical…
In the present article a mathematical model is proposed to research the current coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) in Paraguay, describing the multiple transmission paths in the infection dynamics, following the susceptible, exposed,…
Widespread application of insecticide remains the primary form of control for Chagas disease in Central America, despite only temporarily reducing domestic levels of the endemic vector Triatoma dimidiata and having little long-term impact.…
Many important questions in infectious disease epidemiology involve the effects of covariates (e.g., age or vaccination status) on infectiousness and susceptibility, which can be measured in studies of transmission in households or other…
Malaria is a mosquito-borne, lethal disease that affects millions and kills hundreds of thousands of people each year. In this paper, we develop a model for allocating malaria interventions across geographic regions and time, subject to…
Motivated by recent experimental measurements, the passive diffusion of the bacterium \textit{Leptospira interrogans} is investigated theoretically. By approximating the cell shape as a straight helix and using the slender-body-theory…
Biomedical studies have a common interest in assessing relationships between multiple related health outcomes and high-dimensional predictors. For example, in reproductive epidemiology, one may collect pregnancy outcomes such as length of…
We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic characteristics: the number and distribution of outbreaks, population size, density, and agents' movements. We show that several…
Water-borne diseases are still a major public health concern, as there are circumstances under which water could act as a carrier of the pathogen, extending their modeling beyond direct contact between hosts. In the present work, we…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics…
Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends…
Cholera, a severe gastrointestinal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, remains a major threat to public health with a yearly estimated global burden of 2.9 million cases. Although the majority of existing models for the…
The space-temporal evaluation to characterize meteorological droughts was based on data accumulated monthly precipitation between 1996-2005 from 20 meteorological stations distributed in the Coello River basin. Data precipitation was…