相关论文: Comparing statistical methods to predict leptospir…
In causal inference, an important problem is to quantify the effects of interventions or treatments. Many studies focus on estimating the mean causal effects; however, these estimands may offer limited insight since two distributions can…
Current WHO guidelines set prevalence thresholds below which a Neglected Tropical Disease can be considered to have been eliminated as a public health problem, and specify how surveys to assess whether elimination has been achieved should…
In this work we study the stability properties of the equilibrium points of deterministic epidemic models with nonconstant population size. Models with nonconstant population have been studied in the past only in particular cases, two of…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
Epidemics of influenza are major public health concerns. Since influenza prediction always relies on the weekly clinical or laboratory surveillance data, typically the weekly Influenza-like illness (ILI) rate series, accurate…
We consider lithological tomography in which the posterior distribution of (hydro)geological parameters of interest is inferred from geophysical data by treating the intermediate geophysical properties as latent variables. In such a latent…
The relationships among ecological variables are usually obtained by fitting statistical models that go through the conditional means of the dependent variables. For example, the nonparametric loess and the parametric piecewise linear…
Epidemiological models for the spread of pathogens in a population are usually only able to describe a single pathogen. This makes their application unrealistic in cases where multiple pathogens with similar symptoms are spreading…
The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…
Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic's…
Long-range dependence and non-Gaussianity are ubiquitous in many natural systems like ecosystems, biological systems and climate. However, it is not always appreciated that both phenomena may occur together in natural systems and that…
Flu circulates all over the world. The worldwide infection places a substantial burden on people's health every year. Regardless of the characteristic of the worldwide circulation of flu, most previous studies focused on regional prediction…
We numerically address the stability analysis of linear age-structured population models with nonlocal diffusion, which arise naturally in describing dynamics of infectious diseases. Compared to Laplace diffusion, models with nonlocal…
Insect-borne diseases are diseases carried by insects affecting humans, animals or plants. They have the potential to generate massive outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic in 2015-2016 mostly distributed in the Americas, the Pacific and…
Despite the recent development of methods dealing with partially observed epidemic dynamics (unobserved model coordinates, discrete and noisy outbreak data), limitations remain in practice, mainly related to the quantity of augmented data…
Geostatistical analysis of health data is increasingly used to model spatial variation in malaria prevalence, burden, and other metrics. Traditional inference methods for geostatistical modelling are notoriously computationally intensive,…
New methods and theory have recently been developed to nonparametrically estimate cumulative incidence functions for competing risks survival data subject to current status censoring. In particular, the limiting distribution of the…
Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…
The study of epidemic models plays an important role in mathematical epidemiology. There are many researches on epidemic models using ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations or stochastic differential equations. In…
Climate change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has beenaddressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model…