相关论文: Multiscale Influenza Forecasting
Air pollution remains a major environmental risk factor that is often associated with adverse health outcomes. However, quantifying and evaluating its effects on human health is challenging due to the complex nature of exposure data. Recent…
Renewable resources are strongly dependent on local and large-scale weather situations. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts -- beyond two weeks and up to two months -- can offer significant socioeconomic advantages to the…
Big Bayes is the computationally intensive co-application of big data and large, expressive Bayesian models for the analysis of complex phenomena in scientific inference and statistical learning. Standing as an example, Bayesian…
Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures.…
In this work, we aim to determine the main factors driving behavioral change during the seasonal flu. To this end, we analyze a unique dataset comprised of 599 surveys completed by 434 Italian users of Influweb, a Web platform for…
The Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam faces increasing dengue risks driven by urbanization, globalization, and climate change. This study introduces a probabilistic forecasting model for predicting dengue incidence and outbreaks with one to…
Downsizing the US public health workforce throughout 2025 amplifies potential risks during public health crises. Expert judgment from public health officials represents a vital information source, distinct from traditional surveillance…
Accurate and representative data is vital for precisely reporting the impact of influenza in healthcare systems. Northern hemisphere winter 2022/23 experienced the most substantial influenza wave since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020.…
Early prediction of the prevalence of influenza reduces its impact. Various studies have been conducted to predict the number of influenza-infected people. However, these studies are not highly accurate especially in the distant future such…
Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapid evolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but the decision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, at least in…
Background: Influenza A/H3N2 has been circulating in humans since 1968, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. Although H3N2 incidence is highly seasonal, how such seasonality contributes to global phylogeographic migration dynamics…
Influenza A is responsible for 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths a year, though this estimate is an improvement from years past due to improvements in sanitation, healthcare practices, and vaccination programs. In this study, we perform…
The estimation from available data of parameters governing epidemics is a major challenge. In addition to usual issues (data often incomplete and noisy), epidemics of the same nature may be observed in several places or over different…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
The impact of climate conditions on influenza epidemiology has mostly been studied by addressing a singular aspect of transmission and a climate variable correlating to it. As climate change unfolds at an unprecedented rate, we urgently…
The seasonality of respiratory diseases (common cold, influenza, etc.) is a well-known phenomenon studied from ancient times. The development of predictive models is still not only an actual unsolved problem of mathematical epidemiology but…
Measles presents a unique and imminent challenge for epidemiologists and public health officials: the disease is highly contagious, yet vaccination rates are declining precipitously in many localities. Consequently, the risk of a measles…
In 2015 the US federal government sponsored a dengue forecasting competition using historical case data from Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Competitors were evaluated on several aspects of out-of-sample forecasts including the…
Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) allow participants to bet on future events, producing real-time forecasts based on collective judgment. In domains such as elections and finance, markets have been effective at aggregating…
The classification of weather data involves categorizing meteorological phenomena into classes, thereby facilitating nuanced analyses and precise predictions for various sectors such as agriculture, aviation, and disaster management. This…