相关论文: Timing Terminators: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 O…
The polar precursor method is widely considered to be the most robust physically motivated method to predict the amplitude of an upcoming solar cycle.It uses indicators of the magnetic field concentrated near the poles around sunspot…
A direct dynamical test of the sunspot-cycle is carried out which indicates that a stochastically forced non-linear oscillator characterizes its dynamics. The sunspot series is then decomposed into its eigen time-delay coordinates. The…
Polar fields at the minimum of a sunspot cycle -- which are a manifestation of the radial component of the Sun's poloidal field -- are deemed to be the best indicator of the strength of the toroidal component, and hence the amplitude of the…
Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in…
After summarizing the relevant observational data, we discuss how a study of flux tube dynamics in the solar convection zone helps us to understand the formation of sunspots. Then we introduce the flux transport dynamo model and assess its…
The long term study of the Sun is necessary if we are to determine the evolution of sunspot properties and thereby inform modeling of the solar dynamo, particularly on scales of a solar cycle. We aim to determine a number of sunspot…
This paper develops a planetary model to predict the occurrence of intermediate range periodicity in solar activity, in particular the ~155 day Rieger periodicity in flare activity. It is shown that periodicity at half integer multiples of…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…
Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a…
Context. The Sun shows an activity cycle that is caused by its varying global magnetic field. During a solar cycle, sunspots, i.e. extended regions of strong magnetic fields, occur in activity belts that are slowly migrating from middle to…
The sunspot activity is the end result of the cyclic destruction and regeneration of magnetic fields by the dynamo action. We propose a new method to analyze the daily sunspot areas data recorded since 1874. By computing the power spectral…
We present evidence that $>25$ MeV solar proton events show a clustering in time at intervals of $\approx$ six months that persisted during the rising and peak phases of Solar Cycle 24. This phenomenon is most clearly demonstrated by…
This note deals with a multivariate stochastic approach to forecast the behaviour of a cyclic time series. Particular attention is devoted to the problem of the prediction of time behaviour of sunspot numbers for the current 23th cycle. The…
We have used solar oscillation frequencies and frequency splittings obtained over solar cycles 23, 24 and the rising phase of solar cycle 25 to investigate whether the tachocline properties (jump i.e., the change in the rotation rate across…
The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity.…
Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…
In a recent work, Kilcik et al. (2017), have detected the temporal and periodic behavior of sunspot counts (SSC) in flaring (i.e. C, M, or X class flares), and non-flaring active regions for the last two solar cycles, covering the period:…
Solar eruptions are the leading driver of space weather, and it is vital for space weather forecast to understand in what conditions the solar eruptions can be produced and how they are initiated. The rotation of sunspots around their…
This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…