相关论文: On the overestimation of widely applicable Bayesia…

We propose Posterior Bootstrap, a set of algorithms extending Weighted Likelihood Bootstrap, to properly incorporate prior information and address the problem of model misspecification in Bayesian inference. We consider two approaches to…

We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a biascorrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on…

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

We propose information criteria that measure the prediction risk of a predictive density based on the Bayesian marginal likelihood from a frequentist point of view. We derive criteria for selecting variables in linear regression models,…

We consider constructing model selection criteria for evaluating nonlinear mixed effects models via basis expansions. Mean functions and random functions in the mixed effects model are expressed by basis expansions, then they are estimated…

It has been argued that in supervised classification tasks, in practice it may be more sensible to perform model selection with respect to some more focused model selection score, like the supervised (conditional) marginal likelihood, than…

The widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) has been used as a model selection criterion for Bayesian statistics in recent years. It is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a Bayesian…

Bayesian model selection with improper priors is not well-defined because of the dependence of the marginal likelihood on the arbitrary scaling constants of the within-model prior densities. We show how this problem can be evaded by…

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

The Bayesian and Akaike information criteria aim at finding a good balance between under- and over-fitting. They are extensively used every day by practitioners. Yet we contend they suffer from at least two afflictions: their penalty…

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

In the information-based paradigm of inference, model selection is performed by selecting the candidate model with the best estimated predictive performance. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the estimate of the…

By providing a framework of accounting for the shared ancestry inherent to all life, phylogenetics is becoming the statistical foundation of biology. The importance of model choice continues to grow as phylogenetic models continue to…

We introduce a novel Information Criterion (IC), termed Learning under Singularity (LS), designed to enhance the functionality of the Widely Applicable Bayes Information Criterion (WBIC) and the Singular Bayesian Information Criterion…

RNA-Seq data characteristically exhibits large variances, which need to be appropriately accounted for in the model. We first explore the effects of this variability on the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the overdispersion parameter…

Popular statistical software provides Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for multilevel models or linear mixed models. However, it has been observed that the combination of statistical literature and software documentation has led to…

In statistical learning, models are classified as regular or singular depending on whether the mapping from parameters to probability distributions is injective. Most models with hierarchical structures or latent variables are singular, for…

The overall predictive uncertainty of a trained predictor can be decomposed into separate contributions due to epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. Under a Bayesian formulation, assuming a well-specified model, the two contributions can be…

While the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) are powerful tools for model selection in linear regression, they are built on different prior assumptions and thereby apply to different data generation…