相关论文: Quantile Convolutional Neural Networks for Value a…

In this work, we propose an ensemble forecasting approach based on randomized neural networks. Improved randomized learning streamlines the fitting abilities of individual learners by generating network parameters in accordance with the…

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost…

We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…

In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…

Generative Adversarial Networks are becoming a fundamental tool in Machine Learning, in particular in the context of improving the stability of deep neural networks. At the same time, recent advances in Quantum Computing have shown that,…

A novel dynamical model for the study of operational risk in banks and suitable for the calculation of the Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed. The equation of motion takes into account the interactions among different bank's processes, the…

A long memory and non-linear realized volatility model class is proposed for direct Value at Risk (VaR) forecasting. This model, referred to as RNN-HAR, extends the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model, a framework known for efficiently…

Recently, deep learning techniques are gradually replacing traditional statistical and machine learning models as the first choice for price forecasting tasks. In this paper, we leverage probabilistic deep learning for inferring the…

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) do not have a predictable recognition behavior with respect to the input resolution change. This prevents the feasibility of deployment on different input image resolutions for a specific model. To…

In this paper, a method to detect environmental hazards related to a fall risk using a mobile vision system is proposed. First-person perspective videos are proposed to provide objective evidence on cause and circumstances of perturbed…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Survival regression aims to predict the time when an event of interest will take place, typically a death or a failure. A fully parametric method [18] is proposed to estimate the survival function as a mixture of individual parametric…

We consider the problem of forecasting multiple values of the future of a vector time series, using some past values. This problem, and related ones such as one-step-ahead prediction, have a very long history, and there are a number of…

We introduce a neural network conformal prediction method for time series that enhances adaptivity in non-stationary environments. Our approach acts as a neural controller designed to achieve desired target coverage, leveraging auxiliary…

Multivariate time series forecasting is of great importance to many scientific disciplines and industrial sectors. The evolution of a multivariate time series depends on the dynamics of its variables and the connectivity network of causal…

In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is…

Ensemble forecasting is, so far, the most successful approach to produce relevant forecasts with an estimation of their uncertainty. The main limitations of ensemble forecasting are the high computational cost and the difficulty to capture…

Quantile regression is a method to estimate the quantiles of the conditional distribution of a response variable, and as such it permits a much more accurate portrayal of the relationship between the response variable and observed…

This work presents a novel fundamental algorithm for for defining and training Neural Networks in Quantum Information based on time evolution and the Hamiltonian. Classical Neural Network algorithms (ANN) are computationally expensive. For…

We consider a setting where multiple entities inter-act with each other over time and the time-varying statuses of the entities are represented as multiple correlated time series. For example, speed sensors are deployed in different…