相关论文: Estimating Parameters in Mathematical Model for So…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Accurate identification of parameters of load models is essential in power system computations, including simulation, prediction, and stability and reliability analysis. Conventional point estimation based composite load modeling approaches…

We develop estimation and inference methods for a stylized macroeconomic model with potentially multiple behavioural equilibria, where agents form expectations using a constant-gain learning rule. We first show geometric ergodicity of the…

We analyze the dynamics of an algorithm for approximate inference with large Gaussian latent variable models in a student-teacher scenario. To model nontrivial dependencies between the latent variables, we assume random covariance matrices…

A key factor in ensuring the accuracy of computer simulations that model physical systems is the proper calibration of their parameters based on real-world observations or experimental data. Inevitably, uncertainties arise, and Bayesian…

Mathematical models implemented on a computer have become the driving force behind the acceleration of the cycle of scientific processes. This is because computer models are typically much faster and economical to run than physical…

This paper proposes a Bayesian method for estimating the parameters of a normal distribution when only limited summary statistics (sample mean, minimum, maximum, and sample size) are available. To estimate the parameters of a normal…

To quantify how well theoretical predictions of structural ensembles agree with experimental measurements, we depend on the accuracy of forward models. These models are computational frameworks that generate observable quantities from…

Predicting extreme events is important in many applications in risk analysis. The extreme-value theory suggests modelling extremes by max-stable distributions. The Bayesian approach provides a natural framework for statistical prediction.…

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Model averaging techniques based on resampling methods (such as bootstrapping or subsampling) have been utilized across many areas of statistics, often with the explicit goal of promoting stability in the resulting output. We provide a…

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension…

We propose novel parameter estimation algorithms for a class of dynamical systems with nonlinear parametrization. The class is initially restricted to smooth monotonic functions with respect to a linear functional of the parameters. We show…

Bayesian estimation is a powerful theoretical paradigm for the operation of quantum sensors. However, the Bayesian method for statistical inference generally suffers from demanding calibration requirements that have so far restricted its…

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

As models of cognition grow in complexity and number of parameters, Bayesian inference with standard methods can become intractable, especially when the data-generating model is of unknown analytic form. Recent advances in simulation-based…

Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that…

This work presents the estimation of the parameters of an experimental setup, which is modeled as a system with three degrees of freedom, composed by a shaft, two rotors, and a DC motor, that emulates a drilling process. A Bayesian…

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for…