相关论文: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Criminal Investi…

Probabilistic Graphical Bayesian models of causation have continued to impact on strategic analyses designed to help evaluate the efficacy of different interventions on systems. However, the standard causal algebras upon which these…

When analyzing real-world data it is common to work with event ensembles, which comprise sets of observations that collectively constrain the parameters of an underlying model of interest. Such models often have a hierarchical structure,…

We develop sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian hierarchical models, the computational complexity of which scales linearly with the number of observations and the number of parameters in the model. We focus on crossed random effect and…

A wide range of Bayesian models have been proposed for data that is divided hierarchically into groups. These models aim to cluster the data at different levels of grouping, by assigning a mixture component to each datapoint, and a mixture…

Bayesian hierarchical models are well-suited to analyzing the often noisy data from electroencephalography experiments in cognitive neuroscience: these models provide an intuitive framework to account for structures and correlations in the…

Radicalization is the process by which people come to adopt increasingly extreme political or religious ideologies. While radical thinking is by no means problematic in itself, it becomes a threat to national security when it leads to…

Crime prediction is a widely studied research problem due to its importance in ensuring safety of city dwellers. Starting from statistical and classical machine learning based crime prediction methods, in recent years researchers have…

Highly automated driving requires precise models of traffic participants. Many state of the art models are currently based on machine learning techniques. Among others, the required amount of labeled data is one major challenge. An…

This paper addresses the challenge of viewing and navigating Bayesian networks as their structural size and complexity grow. Starting with a review of the state of the art of visualizing Bayesian networks, an area which has largely been…

Recent technological advances have made it possible to simultaneously measure multiple protein activities at the single cell level. With such data collected under different stimulatory or inhibitory conditions, it is possible to infer the…

Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at…

Accurate estimation of the change in crime over time is a critical first step towards better understanding of public safety in large urban environments. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a natural way to study spatial variation in urban…

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

We consider a task of surveillance-evading path-planning in a continuous setting. An Evader strives to escape from a 2D domain while minimizing the risk of detection (and immediate capture). The probability of detection is path-dependent…

Hierarchical model fitting has become commonplace for case-control studies of cognition and behaviour in mental health. However, these techniques require us to formalise assumptions about the data-generating process at the group level,…

While there have been a lot of recent developments in the context of Bayesian model selection and variable selection for high dimensional linear models, there is not much work in the presence of change point in literature, unlike the…

We consider Bayesian hierarchical models for survival analysis, where the survival times are modeled through an underlying diffusion process which determines the hazard rate. We show how these models can be efficiently treated by means of…

Analyzing crime events is crucial to understand crime dynamics and it is largely helpful for constructing prevention policies. Point processes specified on linear networks can provide a more accurate description of crime incidents by…

We classify two types of Hierarchical Bayesian Model found in the literature as Hierarchical Prior Model (HPM) and Hierarchical Stochastic Model (HSM). Then, we focus on studying the theoretical implications of the HSM. Using examples of…

The level set approach has proven widely successful in the study of inverse problems for interfaces, since its systematic development in the 1990s. Recently it has been employed in the context of Bayesian inversion, allowing for the…