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Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-19 Ting-Hsuan Chang , Zijian Guo , Daniel Malinsky

Membership inference (MI) attacks highlight a privacy weakness in present stochastic training methods for neural networks. It is not well understood, however, why they arise. Are they a natural consequence of imperfect generalization only?…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-01 Teodora Baluta , Shiqi Shen , S. Hitarth , Shruti Tople , Prateek Saxena

As clinical decision-making increasingly moves toward individualized and context-specific treatment recommendations, reliance on any single evidence source, randomized or observational, may be insufficient. Principled integration of…

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-11 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Bin Yu

Randomized trials balance all covariates on average and provide the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. Chance imbalances nevertheless exist more or less in realized treatment allocations and intrigue an important question: what…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-18 Anqi Zhao , Peng Ding

As a pivotal component to attaining generalizable solutions in human intelligence, reasoning provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' generalization towards varied goals by summarizing part-to-whole arguments and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-18 Wenhao Ding , Haohong Lin , Bo Li , Ding Zhao

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are often considered the gold standard for estimating causal effect, but they may lack external validity when the population eligible to the RCT is substantially different from the target population.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-11 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Erwan Scornet , Gaël Varoquaux

Randomized controlled trials (RCT's) allow researchers to estimate causal effects in an experimental sample with minimal identifying assumptions. However, to generalize or transport a causal effect from an RCT to a target population,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-08 Melody Huang

The reliance of text classifiers on spurious correlations can lead to poor generalization at deployment, raising concerns about their use in safety-critical domains such as healthcare. In this work, we propose to use counterfactual data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-10 Amir Feder , Yoav Wald , Claudia Shi , Suchi Saria , David Blei

With the growth in experimental studies in education, policymakers and practitioners are interested in understanding not only what works, but for whom an intervention works. This interest in the generalizability of a study's findings has…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-02 Wendy Chan , Jimin Oh , Katherine J. Wilson

In this work, we propose an approach for assessing sensitivity to unobserved confounding in studies with multiple outcomes. We demonstrate how prior knowledge unique to the multi-outcome setting can be leveraged to strengthen causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-26 Jiajing Zheng , Jiaxi Wu , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Generalized causal effect estimands, including the Mann-Whitney parameter and causal net benefit, provide flexible summaries of treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-Gaussian or multivariate outcomes. We develop a unified…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-27 Xinyuan Chen , Fan Li

Traditional statistical inference in cluster randomized trials typically invokes the asymptotic theory that requires the number of clusters to approach infinity. In this article, we propose an alternative conformal causal inference…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-03 Bingkai Wang , Fan Li , Mengxin Yu

The task of distribution generalization concerns making reliable prediction of a response in unseen environments. The structural causal models are shown to be useful to model distribution changes through intervention. Motivated by the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-14 Kang Du , Yu Xiang

A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-21 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

We consider the problem of predicting a response $Y$ from a set of covariates $X$ when test and training distributions differ. Since such differences may have causal explanations, we consider test distributions that emerge from…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-19 Rune Christiansen , Niklas Pfister , Martin Emil Jakobsen , Nicola Gnecco , Jonas Peters

Many researchers have applied classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies. However, because this framework is based solely on realized outcomes under chosen decisions and ignores…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-10-21 Benedikt Koch , Kosuke Imai

Counterfactuals are central in causal human reasoning and the scientific discovery process. The uplift, also called conditional average treatment effect, measures the causal effect of some action, or treatment, on the outcome of an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Denis Mercier , Jeevan Shrestha , Gianluca Bontempi

Survey experiments are widely used to identify causal effects in political science and the social sciences. Yet researchers are typically interested in more than the internal validity of an experimentally induced contrast. They also want to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-15 Jiawei Fu , Xiaojun Li