相关论文: Causal Discovery and Forecasting in Nonstationary …

We study short-horizon forecasting in financial time series under strict causal constraints, treating the market as a non-stationary stochastic system in which any predictive observable must be computable online from information available…

Causal discovery, the task of inferring causal structure from data, has the potential to uncover mechanistic insights from biological experiments, especially those involving perturbations. However, causal discovery algorithms over larger…

In many environmental applications involving spatially-referenced data, limitations on the number and locations of observations motivate the need for practical and efficient models for spatial interpolation, or kriging. A key component of…

Cause-effect analysis is crucial to understand the underlying mechanism of a system. We propose to exploit model invariance through interventions on the predictors to infer causality in nonlinear multivariate systems of time series. We…

The widespread availability of complex time series data in various domains such as environmental science, epidemiology, and economics demands robust causal discovery methods that can identify intricate contemporaneous and lagged…

State-space models effectively model multivariate time series by updating over time a representation of the system state from which predictions are made. The state representation is usually a vector without any explicit structure.…

Time series modeling for predictive purpose has been an active research area of machine learning for many years. However, no sufficiently comprehensive and meanwhile substantive survey was offered so far. This survey strives to meet this…

Interpretability research now offers a variety of techniques for identifying abstract internal mechanisms in neural networks. Can such techniques be used to predict how models will behave on out-of-distribution examples? In this work, we…

In todays age of data, discovering relationships between different variables is an interesting and a challenging problem. This problem becomes even more critical with regards to complex dynamical systems like weather forecasting and…

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

Causal modeling provides us with powerful counterfactual reasoning and interventional mechanism to generate predictions and reason under various what-if scenarios. However, causal discovery using observation data remains a nontrivial task…

Statistical prediction models are often trained on data from different probability distributions than their eventual use cases. One approach to proactively prepare for these shifts harnesses the intuition that causal mechanisms should…

The ubiquity of multiscale interactions in complex systems is well-recognized, with development and heredity serving as a prime example of how processes at different temporal scales influence one another. This work introduces a novel…

The equations of complex dynamical systems may not be identified by expert knowledge, especially if the underlying mechanisms are unknown. Data-driven discovery methods address this challenge by inferring governing equations from…

For decades, researchers in fields, such as the natural and social sciences, have been verifying causal relationships and investigating hypotheses that are now well-established or understood as truth. These causal mechanisms are properties…

Graphical models can represent a multivariate distribution in a convenient and accessible form as a graph. Causal models can be viewed as a special class of graphical models that not only represent the distribution of the observed system…

An important task in data analysis is the discovery of causal relationships between observed variables. For continuous-valued data, linear acyclic causal models are commonly used to model the data-generating process, and the inference of…

Learning causal relationships from time series data is an important but challenging problem. Existing synthetic datasets often contain hidden artifacts that can be exploited by causal discovery methods, reducing their usefulness for…

Many important phenomena in scientific fields like climate, neuroscience, and epidemiology are naturally represented as spatiotemporal gridded data with complex interactions. Inferring causal relationships from these data is a challenging…

The growing availability and importance of time series data across various domains, including environmental science, epidemiology, and economics, has led to an increasing need for time-series causal discovery methods that can identify the…