相关论文: Automatic Posterior Transformation for Likelihood-…

This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…

We present a novel probabilistic programming framework that couples directly to existing large-scale simulators through a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol, which allows general-purpose inference engines to record and control…

We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…

Posterior inference with an intractable likelihood is becoming an increasingly common task in scientific domains which rely on sophisticated computer simulations. Typically, these forward models do not admit tractable densities forcing…

Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring high-dimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural…

Likelihood-free methods perform parameter inference in stochastic simulator models where evaluating the likelihood is intractable but sampling synthetic data is possible. One class of methods for this likelihood-free problem uses a…

Zero-shot diffusion posterior sampling offers a flexible framework for inverse problems by accommodating arbitrary degradation operators at test time, but incurs high computational cost due to repeated likelihood-guided updates. In…

Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) approaches allow to obtain posterior distributions for stochastic models with intractable likelihood, by relying on model simulations. In Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), a popular LFI method,…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

In recent years, methods of approximate parameter estimation have attracted considerable interest in complex problems where exact likelihoods are hard to obtain. In their most basic form, Bayesian methods such as Approximate Bayesian…

In many domains, scientists build complex simulators of natural phenomena that encode their hypotheses about the underlying processes. These simulators can be deterministic or stochastic, fast or slow, constrained or unconstrained, and so…

In Bayesian optimization, Thompson sampling selects the evaluation point by sampling from the posterior distribution over the objective function maximizer. Because this sampling problem is intractable for Gaussian process (GP) surrogates,…

Non-autoregressive Transformer(NAT) significantly accelerates the inference of neural machine translation. However, conventional NAT models suffer from limited expression power and performance degradation compared to autoregressive (AT)…

Stochastic variational inference offers an attractive option as a default method for differentiable probabilistic programming. However, the performance of the variational approach depends on the choice of an appropriate variational family.…

The posterior in probabilistic programs with stochastic support decomposes as a weighted sum of the local posterior distributions associated with each possible program path. We show that making predictions with this full posterior…

Performing inference over simulators is generally intractable as their runtime means we cannot compute a marginal likelihood. We develop a likelihood-free inference method to infer parameters for a cardiac simulator, which replicates…

Simulation models of complex dynamics in the natural and social sciences commonly lack a tractable likelihood function, rendering traditional likelihood-based statistical inference impossible. Recent advances in machine learning have…

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational methods for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows. An overarching motif of many Bayesian methods is that they…

Approximate Bayesian inference methods provide a powerful suite of tools for finding approximations to intractable posterior distributions. However, machine learning applications typically involve selecting actions, which -- in a Bayesian…

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…