相关论文: Maximizing simulated tropical cyclone intensity wi…
Global deep-learning weather prediction models have recently been shown to produce forecasts that rival those from physics-based models run at operational centers. It is unclear whether these models have encoded atmospheric dynamics, or…
We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the…
Extreme events play a crucial role in fluid turbulence. Inspired by methods from field theory, these extreme events, their evolution and probability can be computed with help of the instanton formalism as minimizers of a suitable action…
Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…
It is shown that condensation and precipitation do not disturb the hydrostatic equilibrium if the local pressure sink (condensation rate expressed in pressure units) is proportional to the local pressure, with a proportionality coefficient…
Large data-driven physics models like DeepMind's weather model GraphCast have empirically succeeded in parameterizing time operators for complex dynamical systems with an accuracy reaching or in some cases exceeding that of traditional…
Our collective understanding of azimuthally-asymmetric features within the coherent structure of a tropical cyclone (TC) continues to improve with the availability of more detailed observations and high-resolution model outputs. However, a…
Conventional hurricane track generation methods typically depend on biased outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs), which undermines their accuracy in the context of climate change. We present a novel dynamic bias correction framework…
Inland tropical cyclone (TC) impacts due to high winds and rainfall-induced flooding depend strongly on the evolution of the wind field and precipitation distribution after landfall. However, research has yet to test the detailed response…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…
Tropical Cyclone (TC) estimation aims to accurately estimate various TC attributes in real time. However, distribution shifts arising from the complex and dynamic nature of TC environmental fields, such as varying geographical conditions…
A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more…
The use of reduced and mixed precision computing has gained increasing attention in high-performance computing (HPC) as a means to improve computational efficiency, particularly on modern hardware architectures like GPUs. In this work, we…
Storm surges cause coastal inundations due to the setup of the water surface resulting from atmospheric pressure, surface winds and breaking waves. The latter is particularly difficult to be accounted for. For instance, it was observed that…
TCBench is a benchmark for evaluating global, short to medium-range (1-5 days) forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity. To allow a fair and model-agnostic comparison, TCBench builds on the IBTrACS observational dataset and…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank among the most costly natural disasters in the United States, and accurate forecasts of track and intensity are critical for emergency response. Intensity guidance has improved steadily but slowly, as processes…
Extreme El Ni\~no events, such as occurred in 1997--1998, can induce severe weather on a global scale, with significant socioeconomic impacts that motivate efforts to understand them better. However, extreme El Ni\~no events are rare, and…
Storm surge is one of the deadliest hazards posed by tropical cyclones (TCs), yet assessing its current and future risk is difficult due to the phenomenon's rarity and physical complexity. Recent advances in artificial intelligence…
Current adversarial attacks on motion estimation, or optical flow, optimize small per-pixel perturbations, which are unlikely to appear in the real world. In contrast, adverse weather conditions constitute a much more realistic threat…
Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model…