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Inferring causal relationships between event pairs in a temporal sequence is applicable in many domains such as healthcare, manufacturing, and transportation. Most existing work on causal inference primarily focuses on event types within…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-16 Kazi Tasnim Zinat , Yun Zhou , Xiang Lyu , Yawei Wang , Zhicheng Liu , Panpan Xu

Biases in observational data of treatments pose a major challenge to estimating expected treatment outcomes in different populations. An important technique that accounts for these biases is reweighting samples to minimize the discrepancy…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-09-14 Michal Ozery-Flato , Pierre Thodoroff , Matan Ninio , Michal Rosen-Zvi , Tal El-Hay

Causal effect estimation (CEE) provides a crucial tool for predicting the unobserved counterfactual outcome for an entity. As CEE relaxes the requirement for ``perfect'' counterfactual samples (e.g., patients with identical attributes and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-19 Hechuan Wen , Tong Chen , Guanhua Ye , Li Kheng Chai , Shazia Sadiq , Hongzhi Yin

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a global measure of the effectiveness of an experimental treatment intervention. Classical methods of its estimation either ignore relevant covariates or do not fully exploit them. Moreover, past work…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2013-11-05 Emil Pitkin , Richard Berk , Lawrence Brown , Andreas Buja , Ed George , Kai Zhang , Linda Zhao

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Accurately estimating personalized treatment effects within a study site (e.g., a hospital) has been challenging due to limited sample size. Furthermore, privacy considerations and lack of resources prevent a site from leveraging…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-17 Xiaoqing Tan , Chung-Chou H. Chang , Ling Zhou , Lu Tang

Estimating treatment effects from observational data provides insights about causality guiding many real-world applications such as different clinical study designs, which are the formulations of trials, experiments, and observational…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-11 Zhixuan Chu , Stephen L. Rathbun , Sheng Li

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-02 Andrew Jesson , Sören Mindermann , Yarin Gal , Uri Shalit

We study the problem of selecting covariates for unbiased estimation of the total causal effect.Existing approaches typically rely on global causal structure learning over all variables, or on strong assumptions such as causal sufficiency -…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-22 Zeyu Liu , Zheng Li , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Kun Zhang

Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is essential in medicine. A central challenge in estimating the ITE is handling confounders, which are factors that affect both an intervention and its outcome. Most…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-11-28 Changhee Lee , Nicholas Mastronarde , Mihaela van der Schaar

Causal representation learning seeks to extract high-level latent factors from low-level sensory data. Most existing methods rely on observational data and structural assumptions (e.g., conditional independence) to identify the latent…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-26 Kartik Ahuja , Divyat Mahajan , Yixin Wang , Yoshua Bengio

NOTE: This preprint has a flawed theoretical formulation. Please avoid it and refer to the ICLR22 publication https://openreview.net/forum?id=q7n2RngwOM. Also, arXiv:2109.15062 contains some new ideas on unobserved Confounding. As an…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

While many areas of machine learning have benefited from the increasing availability of large and varied datasets, the benefit to causal inference has been limited given the strong assumptions needed to ensure identifiability of causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-02 Wenshuo Guo , Serena Wang , Peng Ding , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Under the standard IV model, however, the average treatment effect (ATE) is only partially identifiable. To address this,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-01-08 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

In the domain of causal inference research, the prevalent potential outcomes framework, notably the Rubin Causal Model (RCM), often overlooks individual interference and assumes independent treatment effects. This assumption, however, is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-21 Hongtao Zhu , Sizhe Zhang , Yang Su , Zhenyu Zhao , Nan Chen

Previous work on causal inference has primarily focused on averages and conditional averages of treatment effects, with significantly less attention on variability and uncertainty in individual treatment responses. In this paper, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-10 Liyuan Xu , Bijan Mazaheri

Causal inference from observational data requires untestable identification assumptions. If these assumptions apply, machine learning (ML) methods can be used to study complex forms of causal effect heterogeneity. Recently, several ML…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-20 Richard Post , Isabel van den Heuvel , Marko Petkovic , Edwin van den Heuvel

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a foundational metric in causal inference, widely used to assess intervention efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, in many applications -- particularly in healthcare -- this static…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-23 Julianna Piskorz , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Harry Amad , Mihaela van der Schaar