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This study applied machine learning models to estimate stellar rotation periods from corrected light curve data obtained by the NASA Kepler mission. Traditional methods often struggle to estimate rotation periods accurately due to noise and…

Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…

This paper proposes a general method to handle forecasts exposed to behavioural bias by finding appropriate outside views, in our case corporate sales forecasts of analysts. The idea is to find reference classes, i.e. peer groups, for each…

Classical methods for quantile regression fail in cases where the quantile of interest is extreme and only few or no training data points exceed it. Asymptotic results from extreme value theory can be used to extrapolate beyond the range of…

Random forests is a common non-parametric regression technique which performs well for mixed-type unordered data and irrelevant features, while being robust to monotonic variable transformations. Standard random forests, however, do not…

The space weather community has begun to use frontier methods such as data assimilation, machine learning, and ensemble modeling to advance current operational forecasting efforts. This was highlighted by a multi-disciplinary session at the…

Random forests are a scheme proposed by Leo Breiman in the 2000's for building a predictor ensemble with a set of decision trees that grow in randomly selected subspaces of data. Despite growing interest and practical use, there has been…

We develop a generalized inverse optimization framework for fitting the cost vector of a single linear optimization problem given multiple observed decisions. This setting is motivated by ensemble learning, where building consensus from…

Random Forests have been extensively used in regression and classification, inspiring the development of various forest-based methods. Among these, Mondrian Forests, derived from the Mondrian process, mark a significant advancement.…

Random Forest (RF) is well-known as an efficient ensemble learning method in terms of predictive performance. It is also considered a Black Box because of its hundreds of deep decision trees. This lack of interpretability can be a real…

Many economic applications including optimal pricing and inventory management requires prediction of demand based on sales data and estimation of sales reaction to a price change. There is a wide range of econometric approaches which are…

We present a new approach to ensemble learning. Our approach constructs a tree of subsets of the feature space and associates a predictor (predictive model) - determined by training one of a given family of base learners on an endogenously…

Learning from an imbalanced dataset is a tricky proposition. Because these datasets are biased towards one class, most existing classifiers tend not to perform well on minority class examples. Conventional classifiers usually aim to…

We present convincing empirical evidence for an effective and general strategy for building accurate small models. Such models are attractive for interpretability and also find use in resource-constrained environments. The strategy is to…

Random forests are a statistical learning method widely used in many areas of scientific research because of its ability to learn complex relationships between input and output variables and also its capacity to handle high-dimensional…

The value of an American option is the maximized value of the discounted cash flows from the option. At each time step, one needs to compare the immediate exercise value with the continuation value and decide to exercise as soon as the…

This paper introduces and develops a novel variable importance score function in the context of ensemble learning and demonstrates its appeal both theoretically and empirically. Our proposed score function is simple and more straightforward…

Machine learning-based Deepfake detection models have achieved impressive results on benchmark datasets, yet their performance often deteriorates significantly when evaluated on out-of-distribution data. In this work, we investigate an…

Random Forest is a machine learning method that offers many advantages, including the ability to easily measure variable importance. Class balancing technique is a well-known solution to deal with class imbalance problem. However, it has…

Student performance prediction is a critical research problem to understand the students' needs, present proper learning opportunities/resources, and develop the teaching quality. However, traditional machine learning methods fail to…