相关论文: Data adaptation in HANDY economy-ideology model

This paper explores the versatility and depth of Bayesian modeling by presenting a comprehensive range of applications and methods, combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and variational approximations. Covering topics such as…

Data assimilation (DA) is a fundamental computational technique that integrates numerical simulation models and observation data on the basis of Bayesian statistics. Originally developed for meteorology, especially weather forecasting, DA…

The superposition of data sets with internal parametric self-similarity is a longstanding and widespread technique for the analysis of many types of experimental data across the physical sciences. Typically, this superposition is performed…

Data collected from arrays of sensors are essential for informed decision-making in various systems. However, the presence of anomalies can compromise the accuracy and reliability of insights drawn from the collected data or information…

This paper considers multiple binary hypothesis tests with adaptive allocation of sensing resources from a shared budget over a small number of stages. A Bayesian formulation is provided for the multistage allocation problem of minimizing…

The construction of decision-theoretic Bayesian designs for realistically-complex nonlinear models is computationally challenging, as it requires the optimization of analytically intractable expected utility functions over high-dimensional…

A generic algorithm for the extraction of probabilistic (Bayesian) information about model parameters from data is presented. The algorithm propagates an ensemble of particles in the product space of model parameters and outputs. Each…

By the nature of their construction, many statistical models for extremes result in likelihood functions that are computationally prohibitive to evaluate. This is consequently problematic for the purposes of likelihood-based inference. With…

Shallow water equations are extensively considered in the domains of oceans, atmospheric modelling, and engineering research (Franca et al., 2022), which play significant roles in floods and tsunami governance. Nonetheless, the accurate…

Data assimilation addresses the general problem of how to combine model-based predictions with partial and noisy observations of the process in an optimal manner. This survey focuses on sequential data assimilation techniques using…

Additive spatial statistical models with weakly stationary process assumptions have become standard in spatial statistics. However, one disadvantage of such models is the computation time, which rapidly increases with the number of data…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions in models with unknown or computationally intractable likelihoods. Both the accuracy and computational efficiency of ABC depend on the choice of…

In recent years, neural networks have revolutionized various domains, yet challenges such as hyperparameter tuning and overfitting remain significant hurdles. Bayesian neural networks offer a framework to address these challenges by…

Decision-guided perspectives on model uncertainty expand traditional statistical thinking about managing, comparing and combining inferences from sets of models. Bayesian predictive decision synthesis (BPDS) advances conceptual and…

Data assimilation combines information from physical observations and numerical simulation results to obtain better estimates of the state and parameters of a physical system. A wide class of physical systems of interest have solutions that…

This paper provides a review of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods for carrying out Bayesian posterior inference, through the lens of density estimation. We describe several recent algorithms and make connection with traditional…

We consider Bayesian inverse problems arising in data assimilation for dynamical systems governed by partial and stochastic partial differential equations. The space-time dependent field is inferred jointly with static parameters of the…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a family of statistical inference techniques, which is increasingly used in biology and other scientific fields. Its main benefit is to be applicable to models for which the computation of the model…

Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers fast, scalable approximations to posterior densities by training neural surrogates on data simulated from the statistical model. However, ABI methods are highly sensitive to model misspecification:…

We propose a modification of a maximum likelihood procedure for tuning parameter values in models, based upon the comparison of their output to field data. Our methodology, which uses polynomial approximations of the sample space to…