相关论文: A Fast Particle-Based Approach for Calibrating a 3…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
Rapid retreat of ice in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica may cause drastic sea level rise, posing significant risks to populations in low-lying coastal regions. Calibration of computer models representing the behavior of the West…
Human-induced climate change may cause significant ice volume loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Projections of ice volume change from ice-sheet models and corresponding future sea-level rise have large uncertainties due to…
Antarctic meltwater is expected to increase throughout the coming centuries and impact sea level, ocean circulation, and the coupled climate evolution. This motivates interest in understanding the ocean response to Antarctic freshwater…
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model…
The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal…
Projecting sea-level change in various climate-change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice mass change, which requires high computational…
We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that…
Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet…
We propose and implement a new method, called the Ice Sheet Coupled Approximation Levels (ISCAL) method, for simulation of ice sheet flow in large domains under long time-intervals. The method couples the exact, full Stokes (FS) equations…
Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the global climate. Sea ice models governed by physical equations have been used to simulate the state of the ice including characteristics such as ice thickness, concentration, and motion. More…
This paper investigates the initial boundary value problem for a non-stationary one-dimensional heat equation that simulates the temperature distribution in freshwater ice near the Earth's poles. The mathematical model has been constructed…
How will the climate system respond to anthropogenic forcings? One approach to this question relies on climate model projections. Current climate projections are considerably uncertain. Characterizing and, if possible, reducing this…
Modern problems in astronomical Bayesian inference require efficient methods for sampling from complex, high-dimensional, often multi-modal probability distributions. Most popular methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, perform…
Recent years have seen a huge development in spatial modelling and prediction methodology, driven by the increased availability of remote-sensing data and the reduced cost of distributed-processing technology. It is well known that…
A significant fraction (4%-13%) of Antarctic sea ice remains stationary as landfast sea-ice ("fast ice"), typically anchored by grounded icebergs. Current global climate models do not represent fast-ice formation due to iceberg grounding,…
The physics of planetary climate features a variety of complex systems that are challenging to model as they feature turbulent flows. A key example is the heat flux from the upper ocean to the underside of sea ice which provides a key…
A common way to simulate the transport and spread of pollutants in the atmosphere is via stochastic Lagrangian dispersion models. Mathematically, these models describe turbulent transport processes with stochastic differential equations…
In this paper we introduce adaptive time step control for simulation of evolution of ice sheets. The discretization error in the approximations is estimated using "Milne's device" by comparing the result from two different methods in a…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…