相关论文: Forecasting of the Thermosphere via Assimilation o…

This paper presents an approach for employing artificial neural networks (NN) to emulate an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) as a method of data assimilation. The assimilation methods are tested in the Simplified Parameterizations…

Data assimilation combines information from models, measurements, and priors to estimate the state of a dynamical system such as the atmosphere. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a family of ensemble-based data assimilation approaches…

We explore the potential of Data-Assimilation (DA) within the multi-scale framework of a shell model of turbulence, with a focus on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The central objective is to understand how measuring mesoscales (i.e.,…

Ensemble data assimilation methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are a key component of probabilistic weather forecasting. They represent the uncertainty in the initial conditions by an ensemble which incorporates information…

A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics…

Ensemble transform Kalman filtering (ETKF) data assimilation is often used to combine available observations with numerical simulations to obtain statistically accurate and reliable state representations in dynamical systems. However, it is…

The Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) is implemented to assimilate observations of satellite sea surface temperature, altimeter sea surface height and in situ ocean temperature and…

The weather and climate domains are undergoing a significant transformation thanks to advances in AI-based foundation models such as FourCastNet, GraphCast, ClimaX and Pangu-Weather. While these models show considerable potential, they are…

Working with a two-stage ice sheet model, we explore how statistical data assimilation methods can be used to improve predictions of glacier melt and relatedly, sea level rise. We find that the EnKF improves model runs initialized using…

Data assimilation procedures have been developed for thermospheric models using satellite density measurements as part of the EU Framework Package 7 ATMOP Project. Two models were studied; one a general circulation model, TIEGCM, and the…

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather prediction research is growing rapidly and has shown to be competitive with the advanced dynamic numerical weather prediction models. However, research combining AI-based weather prediction models…

Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system's time evolution. Rather than solving the…

Accurate estimation of thermospheric mass density is a prerequisite for orbit prediction and space situational awareness, where the upper atmosphere responds nonlinearly to solar and geomagnetic forcing across several orders of magnitude.…

A newly introduced stochastic data assimilation method, the Ensemble Kalman Filter Semi-Qualitative (EnKF-SQ) is applied to a realistic coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic, the TOPAZ4 configuration, in a twin experiment framework. The…

Low-order thermoacoustic models are qualitatively correct, but they are typically quantitatively inaccurate. We propose a time-domain bias-aware method to make qualitatively low--order models quantitatively (more) accurate. First, we…

Global maps of the solar photospheric magnetic flux are fundamental drivers for simulations of the corona and solar wind and therefore are important predictors of geoeffective events. However, observations of the solar photosphere are only…

Data assimilation (DA) is a key component of many forecasting models in science and engineering. DA allows one to estimate better initial conditions using an imperfect dynamical model of the system and noisy/sparse observations available…

Accurate estimation and forecasting of energy consumption are important for power-system operation, planning, and demand-side management. In practice, however, complete and timely measurements may not always be available, and the observed…

Accurate estimation of thermosphere mass density is critical to determining how satellite orbits evolve over time and thus to planning and managing space missions. Empirical thermosphere models are commonly employed for this purpose, but…

Data assimilation plays a key role in large-scale atmospheric weather forecasting, where the state of the physical system is estimated from model outputs and observations, and is then used as initial condition to produce accurate future…