相关论文: Probabilistic Energy Forecasting using Quantile Re…

Estimating quantiles of an outcome conditional on covariates is of fundamental interest in statistics with broad application in probabilistic prediction and forecasting. We propose an ensemble method for conditional quantile estimation,…

This paper proposes a nonparametric multivariate density forecast model based on deep learning. It not only offers the whole marginal distribution of each random variable in forecasting targets, but also reveals the future correlation…

Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs), a prominent approach in Quantum Machine Learning (QML), are emerging as a powerful alternative to classical machine learning methods. Recent studies have focused on the applicability of QNNs to various tasks,…

Rolling forecasts have been almost overlooked in the renewable energy storage literature. In this paper, we provide a new approach for handling uncertainty not just in the accuracy of a forecast, but in the evolution of forecasts over time.…

KNN has the reputation to be the word simplest but efficient supervised learning algorithm used for either classification or regression. KNN prediction efficiency highly depends on the size of its training data but when this training data…

Quantum technologies are developing powerful tools to generate and manipulate coherent superpositions of different energy levels. Envisaging a new generation of energy-efficient quantum devices, here we explore how coherence can be…

While deep learning-based classification is generally tackled using standardized approaches, a wide variety of techniques are employed for regression. In computer vision, one particularly popular such technique is that of confidence-based…

Quantifying the uncertainty of forecasting models is essential to assess and mitigate the risks associated with data-driven decisions, especially in volatile domains such as electricity markets. Machine learning methods can provide highly…

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

In various applications, probabilistic forecasts are required to quantify the inherent uncertainty associated with the forecast. However, numerous modern forecasting methods are still designed to create deterministic forecasts. Transforming…

In this paper we propose a new method for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices. It is based on averaging point forecasts from different models combined with expectile regression. We show that deriving the predicted distribution…

Forecast reconciliation adjusts independently generated forecasts so that they satisfy some known constraints. While probabilistic forecast reconciliation is well established for linear constraints, some practical forecasting problems…

This paper addresses computational challenges in estimating Quantile Regression with Selection (QRS). The estimation of the parameters that model self-selection requires the estimation of the entire quantile process several times. Moreover,…

This paper considers doing quantile regression on censored data using neural networks (NNs). This adds to the survival analysis toolkit by allowing direct prediction of the target variable, along with a distribution-free characterisation of…

Quantile Regression (QR) provides a way to approximate a single conditional quantile. To have a more informative description of the conditional distribution, QR can be merged with deep learning techniques to simultaneously estimate multiple…

The high penetration of volatile renewable energy sources such as solar make methods for coping with the uncertainty associated with them of paramount importance. Probabilistic forecasts are an example of these methods, as they assist…

Optimizing smart grid operations relies on critical decision-making informed by uncertainty quantification, making probabilistic forecasting a vital tool. Designing such forecasting models involves three key challenges: accurate and…

This study proposes a novel method for forecasting a scalar variable based on high-dimensional predictors that is applicable to various data distributions. In the literature, one of the popular approaches for forecasting with many…

Prediction of quantiles at extreme tails is of interest in numerous applications. Extreme value modelling provides various competing predictors for this point prediction problem. A common method of assessment of a set of competing…

China has made great achievements in electric power industry during the long-term deepening of reform and opening up. However, the complex regional economic, social and natural conditions, electricity resources are not evenly distributed,…