相关论文: Likelihood-free MCMC with Amortized Approximate Ra…

Most solved dynamic structural macrofinance models are non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state-space models with high-dimensional and complex structures. We propose an annealed controlled sequential Monte Carlo method that delivers numerically…

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is widely used for analyzing correlated data, particularly in large-scale biomedical and social science applications. Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs is challenging because the marginal…

Loss tomography has been studied for more than 10 years and a number of estimators have been proposed. The estimators can be divided into two classes: maximum likelihood and non-maximum likelihood. The maximum likelihood estimators rely on…

Although the Bayesian paradigm offers a formal framework for estimating the entire probability distribution over uncertain parameters, its online implementation can be challenging due to high computational costs. We suggest the Adaptive…

A maximum likelihood methodology for the parameters of models with an intractable likelihood is introduced. We produce a likelihood-free version of the stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the…

In simulation-based inferences for partially observed Markov process models (POMP), the by-product of the Monte Carlo filtering is an approximation of the log likelihood function. Recently, iterated filtering [14, 13] has originally been…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling from a posterior distribution corresponding to a massive data set can be computationally prohibitive since producing one sample requires a number of operations that is linear in the data size. In…

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

We consider the approximation of expectations with respect to the distribution of a latent Markov process given noisy measurements. This is known as the smoothing problem and is often approached with particle and Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models,…

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

Completely random measures provide a principled approach to creating flexible unsupervised models, where the number of latent features is infinite and the number of features that influence the data grows with the size of the data set. Due…

In this paper we consider a variety of procedures for numerical statistical inference in the family of univariate and multivariate stable distributions. In connection with univariate distributions (i) we provide approximations by finite…

We present new MCMC algorithms for computing the posterior distributions and expectations of the unknown variables in undirected graphical models with regular structure. For demonstration purposes, we focus on Markov Random Fields (MRFs).…

Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models…

We propose an algorithm which predicts each subsequent time step relative to the previous timestep of intractable short rate model (when adjusted for drift and overall distribution of previous percentile result) and show that the method…

We introduce a new amortized likelihood ratio estimator for likelihood-free simulation-based inference (SBI). Our estimator is simple to train and estimates the likelihood ratio using a single forward pass of the neural estimator. Our…

For large model spaces, the potential entrapment of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods with spike-and-slab priors poses significant challenges in posterior computation in regression models. On the other hand, maximum a posteriori…

This paper proposes an Adaptive Learning Model Predictive Control strategy for uncertain constrained linear systems performing iterative tasks. The additive uncertainty is modeled as the sum of a bounded process noise and an unknown…