相关论文: Non-Stationary Dividend-Price Ratios

Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…

Sample average approximation--based stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) and model predictive control (MPC) are two different methods for approaching multistage stochastic optimization. In this paper we investigate the conditions under…

Non-stationary environments are challenging for reinforcement learning algorithms. If the state transition and/or reward functions change based on latent factors, the agent is effectively tasked with optimizing a behavior that maximizes…

We study episodic reinforcement learning in non-stationary linear (a.k.a. low-rank) Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), i.e, both the reward and transition kernel are linear with respect to a given feature map and are allowed to evolve either…

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are used as an important tool in the data analysis of repeated measures and longitudinal studies. The most common form of LMMs utilize a normal distribution to model the random effects. Such assumptions can often…

We generalize the classic Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) used for prediction of future total returns of the stock market. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. The difference between log wealth and log earnings is…

This paper uses deep learning to value derivatives. The approach is broadly applicable, and we use a call option on a basket of stocks as an example. We show that the deep learning model is accurate and very fast, capable of producing…

We study the set of marginal utility-based prices of a financial derivative in the case where the investor has a non-replicable random endowment. We provide an example showing that even in the simplest of settings - such as Samuelson's…

Reinforcement learning (RL) for exponential-utility optimization in discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs) lacks principled value-based algorithms. We address this gap in the fixed risk-aversion setting. Building on the Bellman-type…

We consider the robust utility maximization using a static holding in derivatives and a dynamic holding in the stock. There is no fixed model for the price of the stock but we consider a set of probability measures (models) which are not…

We study the risk performance of distributed learning for the regularization empirical risk minimization with fast convergence rate, substantially improving the error analysis of the existing divide-and-conquer based distributed learning.…

This paper introduced key aspects of applying Machine Learning (ML) models, improved trading strategies, and the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM) to optimize stock option forecasting and trading results. It presented the findings of the…

Adopting a probabilistic approach we determine the optimal dividend payout policy of a firm whose surplus process follows a controlled arithmetic Brownian motion and whose cash-flows are discounted at a stochastic dynamic rate. Dividends…

This study proposes a portfolio optimization framework that integrates advanced deep learning architectures with traditional financial models to enhance risk-adjusted performance. Using historical data from 2015-2023 across equities, ETFs,…

This paper considers the optimal dividend payment problem in piecewise-deterministic compound Poisson risk models. The objective is to maximize the expected discounted dividend payout up to the time of ruin. We provide a comparative study…

Statistical inference for high dimensional parameters (HDPs) can be based on their intrinsic correlation; that is, parameters that are close spatially or temporally tend to have more similar values. This is why nonlinear mixed-effects…

We consider off-policy policy evaluation with function approximation (FA) in average-reward MDPs, where the goal is to estimate both the reward rate and the differential value function. For this problem, bootstrapping is necessary and,…

This paper provides an empirical study explores the application of deep learning algorithms-Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Transformer-in constructing long-short stock…

We study continuous-time portfolio selection under monotone mean-variance (MMV) preferences in a jump-diffusion model, presenting an explicit solution different from that under classical mean-variance (MV) preferences in dynamic settings…

We analyze the \textit{Large Deviation Probability (LDP)} of linear factor models generated from non-identically distributed components with \textit{regularly-varying} tails, a large subclass of heavy tailed distributions. An efficient…