相关论文: Dancing with Donald: Polarity in the 2016 Presiden…
There have been several instances in our nation's history in which the presidential candidate who received the most popular votes did not win the presidency. Using a principal components analysis of recent presidential elections, we…
The controversies around the 2020 US presidential elections certainly casts serious concerns on the efficiency of the current voting system in representing the people's will. Is the naive Plurality voting suitable in an extremely polarized…
Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each…
U.S. presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, established in 1789, and designed to mitigate potential risks arising from the collusion of large groups of citizens. A statewide winner-take-all popular voting system for…
In this paper, we study follower demographics of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the two leading candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential race. We build a unique dataset US2016, which includes the number of followers for each candidate…
To many statisticians and citizens, the outcome of the most recent U.S. presidential election represents a failure of data-driven methods on the grandest scale. This impression has led to much debate and discussion about how the election…
From a crowded field with 17 candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have emerged as the two front-runners in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. The two candidates each boast more than 5 million followers on Twitter, and at the same…
While the polls have been the most trusted source for election predictions for decades, in the recent presidential election they were called inaccurate and biased. How inaccurate were the polls in this election and can social media beat the…
While voters from opposing parties have traditionally exhibited symmetric levels of hostility toward out-party candidates, our analysis of the 2016 and 2020 Nationscape data reveals a notable departure from this pattern. In 2016, negative…
Gender is playing an important role in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, especially with Hillary Clinton becoming the first female presidential nominee and Donald Trump being frequently accused of sexism. In this paper, we introduce…
Representative democracy in the United States relies on election systems that transmit votes into representatives in three key bodies: the two chambers of the federal legislature (House of Representatives and Senate) and the Electoral…
The 2016 U.S. presidential election has witnessed the major role of Twitter in the year's most important political event. Candidates used this social media platform extensively for online campaigns. Meanwhile, social media has been filled…
Thanks to their name recognition and popularity, celebrities play an important role in American politics. Celebrity endorsements could add to the momentum of a politician's campaign and win the candidate extensive media coverage. There is…
In this paper, we provide a quantitative and qualitative analyses of the viral tweets related to the US presidential election. In our study, we focus on analyzing the most retweeted 50 tweets for everyday during September and October 2016.…
We compare federal election results for each state versus the USA in every second year from 1992 to 2018, to model partisan lean of each state and its dependence on the nationwide popular vote. For each state, we model both its current…
In the US 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama was elected as the 44th president of United States, winning the 53% of popular votes and 68% of electoral votes; in the election of 2000, Al Gore lost the election receiving 49 % of…
In this paper, we propose a web-centered framework to infer voter preferences for the 2016 U.S. presidential primaries. Using Twitter data collected from Sept. 2015 to March 2016, we first uncover the tweeting tactics of the candidates and…
Polls posted on social media have emerged in recent years as an important tool for estimating public opinion, e.g., to gauge public support for business decisions and political candidates in national elections. Here, we examine nearly two…
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in…
In this paper, we present quantitative and qualitative analysis of the top retweeted tweets (viral tweets) pertaining to the US presidential elections from September 1, 2016 to Election Day on November 8, 2016. For everyday, we tagged the…