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Ensembles of deep neural networks have achieved great success recently, but they do not offer a proper Bayesian justification. Moreover, while they allow for averaging of predictions over several hypotheses, they do not provide any…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-23 Francesco D'Angelo , Vincent Fortuin , Florian Wenzel

Dropout regularization of deep neural networks has been a mysterious yet effective tool to prevent overfitting. Explanations for its success range from the prevention of "co-adapted" weights to it being a form of cheap Bayesian inference.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-05-30 Eric Nalisnick , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Padhraic Smyth

This paper introduces a new neural network based prior for real valued functions on $\mathbb R^d$ which, by construction, is more easily and cheaply scaled up in the domain dimension $d$ compared to the usual Karhunen-Lo\`eve function space…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-09 Torben Sell , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently gained popularity due to their ability to quantify model uncertainty. However, specifying a prior for BNNs that captures relevant domain knowledge is often extremely challenging. In this work,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-22 Dylan Sam , Rattana Pukdee , Daniel P. Jeong , Yewon Byun , J. Zico Kolter

Federated Learning (FL) emerges as a distributed machine learning paradigm without end-user data transmission, effectively avoiding privacy leakage. Participating devices in FL are usually bandwidth-constrained, and the uplink is much…

分布式、并行与集群计算 · 计算机科学 2023-07-17 Jingjing Xue , Min Liu , Sheng Sun , Yuwei Wang , Hui Jiang , Xuefeng Jiang

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

Variational Bayesian inference and (collapsed) Gibbs sampling are the two important classes of inference algorithms for Bayesian networks. Both have their advantages and disadvantages: collapsed Gibbs sampling is unbiased but is also…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-06-18 Max Welling , Yee Whye Teh , Hilbert Kappen

Dropout is used as a practical tool to obtain uncertainty estimates in large vision models and reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. But to obtain well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, a grid-search over the dropout probabilities is necessary…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-05-23 Yarin Gal , Jiri Hron , Alex Kendall

We consider deep neural networks in a Bayesian framework with a prior distribution sampling the network weights at random. Following a recent idea of Agapiou and Castillo (2023), who show that heavy-tailed prior distributions achieve…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-04-16 Ismaël Castillo , Paul Egels

Machine learning models often degrade when deployed on data distributions different from their training data. Challenging conventional validation paradigms, we demonstrate that higher in-distribution (ID) bias can lead to better…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-03 Ruixuan Chen , Wentao Li , Jiahui Xiao , Yuchen Li , Yimin Tang , Xiaonan Wang

We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-06-24 Christos Louizos , Max Welling

We propose a combinatorial and graph-theoretic theory of dropout by modeling training as a random walk over a high-dimensional graph of binary subnetworks. Each node represents a masked version of the network, and dropout induces stochastic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-30 Sahil Rajesh Dhayalkar

Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for machine learning models, especially in safety-critical domains. While exact Bayesian inference offers a principled approach, it is often computationally infeasible for deep neural networks.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-18 Aslak Djupskås , Alexander Johannes Stasik , Signe Riemer-Sørensen

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular combination of deep latent variable model and accompanying variational learning technique. By using a neural inference network to approximate the model's posterior on latent variables, VAEs…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-01-30 Junxian He , Daniel Spokoyny , Graham Neubig , Taylor Berg-Kirkpatrick

Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular and computationally efficient method to approximate the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference, especially when the exact posterior is analytically intractable and sampling-based approaches are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-30 Jiaming Liu , Meng Li

A crucial task in predictive maintenance is estimating the remaining useful life of physical systems. In the last decade, deep learning has improved considerably upon traditional model-based and statistical approaches in terms of predictive…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-05 Luca Della Libera , Jacopo Andreoli , Davide Dalle Pezze , Mirco Ravanelli , Gian Antonio Susto

As deep neural networks (DNNs) are applied to increasingly challenging problems, they will need to be able to represent their own uncertainty. Modeling uncertainty is one of the key features of Bayesian methods. Using Bernoulli dropout with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-19 Patrick McClure , Nikolaus Kriegeskorte

We propose a new Bayesian Neural Net formulation that affords variational inference for which the evidence lower bound is analytically tractable subject to a tight approximation. We achieve this tractability by (i) decomposing ReLU…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-06-13 Manuel Haussmann , Fred A. Hamprecht , Melih Kandemir

Many different methods to train deep generative models have been introduced in the past. In this paper, we propose to extend the variational auto-encoder (VAE) framework with a new type of prior which we call "Variational Mixture of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-02-27 Jakub M. Tomczak , Max Welling

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-10 Michael A. Chappell , Mark W. Woolrich