相关论文: Ensemble Method for Censored Demand Prediction

Risk prediction models are widely used to guide real-world decision-making in areas such as healthcare and economics, and they also play a key role in estimating nuisance parameters in semiparametric inference. The super learner is a…

Boosting has garnered significant interest across both machine learning and statistical communities. Traditional boosting algorithms, designed for fully observed random samples, often struggle with real-world problems, particularly with…

Power systems face increasing challenges in maintaining resource adequacy due to lower operating margins, rising renewable energy uncertainty, and demand variability. Forecasting the probability distribution of peak demand on shorter…

The computational prediction algorithm of neural network, or deep learning, has drawn much attention recently in statistics as well as in image recognition and natural language processing. Particularly in statistical application for…

We introduce the Estimated Dynamic Equilibrium Model (EDEM), an agent-based framework that treats supply and demand as a coupled stochastic process driven by heterogeneous, noisy agent valuations. The model's primary technical contribution…

Mixture model-based clustering, usually applied to multidimensional data, has become a popular approach in many data analysis problems, both for its good statistical properties and for the simplicity of implementation of the…

This paper proposes a novel method for demand forecasting in a pricing context. Here, modeling the causal relationship between price as an input variable to demand is crucial because retailers aim to set prices in a (profit) optimal manner…

When modelling censored observations, a typical approach in current regression methods is to use a censored-Gaussian (i.e. Tobit) model to describe the conditional output distribution. In this paper, as in the case of missing data, we argue…

This paper examines the use of a residual bootstrap for bias correction in machine learning regression methods. Accounting for bias is an important obstacle in recent efforts to develop statistical inference for machine learning methods. We…

We consider efficient estimation of flexible transformation models with interval-censored data. To reduce the dimension of semi-parametric models, the unknown monotone transformation function is approximated via monotone splines. A…

There is a long history in machine learning of model ensembling, beginning with boosting and bagging and continuing to the present day. Much of this history has focused on combining models for classification and regression, but recently…

In this study, we investigate the problem of dynamic multi-product selection and pricing by introducing a novel framework based on a \textit{censored multinomial logit} (C-MNL) choice model. In this model, sellers present a set of products…

This paper addresses the challenge of forecasting corporate distress, a problem marked by three key statistical hurdles: (i) right censoring, (ii) high-dimensional predictors, and (iii) mixed-frequency data. To overcome these complexities,…

In this paper, we study the behavior of a kernel estimator of the regression function in the right censored model with $\alpha$-mixing data . The uniform strong consistency over a real compact set of the estimate is established along with a…

Embedding models, which learn latent representations of users and items based on user-item interaction patterns, are a key component of recommendation systems. In many applications, contextual constraints need to be applied to refine…

Ensembling multiple predictions is a widely used technique for improving the accuracy of various machine learning tasks. One obvious drawback of ensembling is its higher execution cost during inference. In this paper, we first describe our…

Demand forecasting is a crucial component of demand management. While shortening the forecasting horizon allows for more recent data and less uncertainty, this frequently means lower data aggregation levels and a more significant data…

An effective ranking model usually requires a large amount of training data to learn the relevance between documents and queries. User clicks are often used as training data since they can indicate relevance and are cheap to collect, but…

Interference between treated and untreated units is a source of bias in marketplace experiments. In this paper, we specifically consider pricing interventions, in which a platform seeks to adjust base pricing levels at the marketplace level…

Statistical and structural modeling represent two distinct approaches to data analysis. In this paper, we propose a set of novel methods for combining statistical and structural models for improved prediction and causal inference. Our first…