相关论文: Risk analysis for long term disposal of radioactiv…

We used Bayesian methods to compare the predictions of probabilistic risk assessment -- the theoretical tool used by the nuclear industry to predict the frequency of nuclear accidents -- with empirical data. The existing record of accidents…

From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic…

Security risk management can be applied on well-defined or existing systems; in this case, the objective is to identify existing vulnerabilities, assess the risks and provide for the adequate countermeasures. Security risk management can…

Fault tree analysis is a technique widely used in risk and reliability analysis of complex engineering systems given its deductive nature and relatively simple interpretation. In a fault tree, events are usually represented by a binary…

Safety-critical infrastructures must operate safely and reliably. Fault tree analysis is a widespread method used to assess risks in these systems: fault trees (FTs) are required - among others - by the Federal Aviation Authority, the…

Safety-critical infrastructures must operate in a safe and reliable way. Fault tree analysis is a widespread method used for risk assessment of these systems: fault trees (FTs) are required by, e.g., the Federal Aviation Administration and…

This paper examines the use of contingency analysis for a nuclear power plant to determine its potential benefits for the nuclear industry. Various N-1 contingencies were analyzed for a model of an existing nuclear plant, primarily…

In this paper we present our ideas for conducting a cost benefit analysis by using three different methods: scenario analysis, decision trees and simulation. Then we introduce our case study and examine these methods in a real world…

Long-term solutions for the disposal of toxic wastes usually involve isolation of the wastes in a deep subsurface geologic environment. In the case of spent nuclear fuel, if radionuclide leakage occurs from the engineered barrier, the…

Radioactive waste disposal in deep boreholes may be more "ready" than disposal in mined geologic repositories since mankind has greater experience operating small deep holes - boreholes, than big shallow holes - mines. There are several…

Risk assessment of cyber-physical systems, such as power plants, connected devices and IT-infrastructures has always been challenging: safety (i.e. absence of unintentional failures) and security (i.e. no disruptions due to attackers) are…

This paper considers the state of nuclear and radiological security in the UK and abroad and reports on the methods that could be employed by terrorists with radiological or nuclear material to cause destruction. It is shown that despite…

A long-term strategy based on existing technological, ecological, economical, and geopolitical realities is urgently needed to develop a sustainable energy economy, which should be designed with adaptability to unpredicted changes in any of…

In Bangladesh, a nation vulnerable to climate change, accurately quantifying the risk of extreme weather events is crucial for planning effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Downscaling coarse climate model projections to finer…

This paper presents a method for incorporating risk aversion into existing decision tree models used in economic evaluations. The method involves applying a probability weighting function based on rank dependent utility theory to reduced…

Recently, attempts have been made to take into account the fractal properties of seismicity when mapping the long-term rate of earthquakes. The paper touches upon the theoretical aspects of fractality and provides a critical analysis of its…

Wood products that are subjected to sustained stress over a period of long duration may weaken, and this effect must be considered in models for the long-term reliability of lumber. The damage accumulation approach has been widely used for…

A method for conducting Bayesian elicitation and learning in risk assessment is presented. It assumes that the risk process can be described as a fault tree. This is viewed as a belief network, for which prior distributions on primary event…

The importance of mission or safety critical software systems in many application domains of embedded systems is continuously growing, and so is the effort and complexity for reliability and safety analysis. Model driven development is…

Obtaining the ability to make informed decisions regarding the operation and maintenance of structures, provides a major incentive for the implementation of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is…