相关论文: Improving Subseasonal Forecasting in the Western U…
Predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales--ranging from two weeks to two month--are crucial for early warning systems but remain challenging owing to chaos in the climate system. Teleconnections, such as the stratospheric…
Operational forecasting centers are investing in decadal (1-10 year) forecast systems to support long-term decision making for a more climate-resilient society. One method that has previously been employed is the Dynamic Mode Decomposition…
Precipitation nowcasting, the high-resolution forecasting of precipitation up to two hours ahead, supports the real-world socio-economic needs of many sectors reliant on weather-dependent decision-making. State-of-the-art operational…
While machine learning (ML) post-processing of convection-allowing model (CAM) output for severe weather hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes) has shown promise for very short lead times (0-3 hours), its application to…
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the \textbf{end-to-end methods}, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face…
Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only transformer networks to post-process AI-based weather…
Skillful subseasonal forecasts are crucial for various sectors of society but pose a grand scientific challenge. Recently, machine learning based weather forecasting models outperform the most successful numerical weather predictions…
Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…
The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling…
Current time-series forecasting problems use short-term weather attributes as exogenous inputs. However, in specific time-series forecasting solutions (e.g., demand prediction in the supply chain), seasonal climate predictions are crucial…
Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting is crucial for public health, disaster preparedness, and agriculture, and yet it remains a particularly challenging timescale to predict. We explore the use of an interpretable AI-informed model analog…
The accurate long-term forecasting of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still one of the biggest challenges in climate science. While it is true that short-to medium-range performance has been improved significantly using the…
Accurately predicting long-term rainfall is challenging. Global climate indices, such as the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation, are standard input features for machine learning. However, a significant gap persists regarding local-scale indices…
Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…
Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…
A 200-member ensemble developed at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes based on the Weather Research and Forecast atmospheric model tailored for the prediction of atmospheric rivers and associated heavy-to-extreme…
The present work is aimed to examine the potential of advanced machine learning strategies to predict the monthly rainfall (precipitation) for the Indus Basin, using climatological variables such as air temperature, geo-potential height,…
Multiple studies have now demonstrated that machine learning (ML) can give improved skill for predicting or simulating fairly typical weather events, for tasks such as short-term and seasonal weather forecasting, downscaling simulations to…
A precise forecast for droughts is of considerable value to scientific research, agriculture, and water resource management. With emerging developments of data-driven approaches for hydro-climate modeling, this paper investigates an…
Deep learning has been successfully applied to precipitation nowcasting. In this work, we propose a pre-training scheme and a new loss function for improving deep-learning-based nowcasting. First, we adapt U-Net, a widely-used deep-learning…