相关论文: Focused econometric estimation for noisy and small…

We present Bayesian Mixture of Experts (Bayesian-MoE), a post-hoc uncertainty estimation framework for fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) based on Mixture-of-Experts architectures. Our method applies a structured Laplace approximation…

Bayesian analysis is a framework for parameter estimation that applies even in uncertainty regimes where the commonly used local (frequentist) analysis based on the Cram\'er-Rao bound is not well defined. In particular, it applies when no…

Sparse Mixture of Experts (MoE) large language models (LLMs) are gradually becoming the mainstream approach for ultra-large-scale models. Existing optimization efforts for MoE models have focused primarily on coarse-grained MoE…

We develop a novel Empirical Bayes methodology for prediction under check loss in high-dimensional Gaussian models. The check loss is a piecewise linear loss function having differential weights for measuring the amount of underestimation…

This paper studies a Bayesian approach to non-asymptotic minimax adaptation in nonparametric estimation. Estimating an input function on the basis of output functions in a Gaussian white-noise model is discussed. The input function is…

In many estimation problems, e.g. linear and logistic regression, we wish to minimize an unknown objective given only unbiased samples of the objective function. Furthermore, we aim to achieve this using as few samples as possible. In the…

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the modes of an observed non-stationary mixture signal in the presence of an arbitrary distributed noise. A novel Bayesian model is introduced to estimate the model parameters from the…

Ideally, a meta-analysis will summarize data from several unbiased studies. Here we consider the less than ideal situation in which contributing studies may be compromised by measurement error. Measurement error affects every study design,…

This paper proposes a Lasso-type estimator for a high-dimensional sparse parameter identified by a single index conditional moment restriction (CMR). In addition to this parameter, the moment function can also depend on a nuisance function,…

Efficient Bayesian model selection relies on the model evidence or marginal likelihood, whose computation often requires evaluating an intractable integral. The harmonic mean estimator (HME) has long been a standard method of approximating…

Many-objective optimisation, a subset of multi-objective optimisation, involves optimisation problems with more than three objectives. As the number of objectives increases, the number of solutions needed to adequately represent the entire…

This paper develops a unified estimation framework, the Maximum Ideal Likelihood Estimation (MILE), for general parametric models with latent variables. Unlike traditional approaches relying on the marginal likelihood of the observed data,…

Bayesian optimisation (BO) is widely used to optimise stochastic black box functions. While most BO approaches focus on optimising conditional expectations, many applications require risk-averse strategies and alternative criteria…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Datasets in engineering applications are often limited and contaminated, mainly due to unavoidable measurement noise and signal distortion. Thus, using conventional data-driven approaches to build a reliable discriminative model, and…

Penalized likelihood and quasi-likelihood methods dominate inference in high-dimensional linear mixed-effects models. Sampling-based Bayesian inference is less explored due to the computational bottlenecks introduced by the random effects…

Bayesian entity resolution merges together multiple, noisy databases and returns the minimal collection of unique individuals represented, together with their true, latent record values. Bayesian methods allow flexible generative models…

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…

Maximum likelihood estimators for time-dependent mean functions within Gaussian processes are provided in the context of continuous observations. We find the widest possible class of mean functions for which the likelihood function can be…

We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…