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Bayesian design of experiments and sample size calculations usually rely on complex Monte Carlo simulations in practice. Obtaining bounds on Bayesian notions of the false-positive rate and power therefore often lack closed-form or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-06 Riko Kelter , Samuel Pawel

Importance sampling is a popular technique in Bayesian inference: by reweighting samples drawn from a proposal distribution we are able to obtain samples and moment estimates from a Bayesian posterior over latent variables. Recent work,…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-06-19 Sam Bowyer , Thomas Heap , Laurence Aitchison

In many domains, we are interested in analyzing the structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether one variable is a direct parent of the other. Bayesian model-selection attempts to find the MAP model and use its structure to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-01-18 Nir Friedman , Daphne Koller

In real-world Bayesian inference applications, prior assumptions regarding the parameters of interest may be unrepresentative of their actual values for a given dataset. In particular, if the likelihood is concentrated far out in the wings…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-11-01 Xi Chen , Mike Hobson , Saptarshi Das , Paul Gelderblom

We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-05-12 Daniel G. Rasines , G. Alastair Young

In a non supervised Bayesian estimation approach for inverse problems in imaging systems, one tries to estimate jointly the unknown image pixels $\fb$ and the hyperparameters $\thetab$. This is, in general, done through the joint posterior…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2007-06-14 Ali Mohammad-Djafari

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-07-13 Luis G. Leon-Novelo , Terrance D. Savitsky

We consider the inverse problem of estimating an unknown function $u$ from noisy measurements $y$ of a known, possibly nonlinear, map $\mathcal{G}$ applied to $u$. We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and work in a setting where the…

概率论 · 数学 2013-09-20 Masoumeh Dashti , Kody J. H. Law , Andrew M. Stuart , Jochen Voss

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-08 Jane Pan , Sudipto Banerjee

High-dimensional linear models have been widely studied, but the developments in high-dimensional generalized linear models, or GLMs, have been slower. In this paper, we propose an empirical or data-driven prior leading to an empirical…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-09 Yiqi Tang , Ryan Martin

Bayesian inference is used extensively to quantify the uncertainty in an inferred field given the measurement of a related field when the two are linked by a mathematical model. Despite its many applications, Bayesian inference faces…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-03-31 Dhruv V. Patel , Assad A. Oberai

In inverse problems, the parameters of a model are estimated based on observations of the model response. The Bayesian approach is powerful for solving such problems; one formulates a prior distribution for the parameter state that is…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-06-08 Max Ehre , Rafael Flock , Martin Fußeder , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

In Bayesian optimization, accounting for the importance of the output relative to the input is a crucial yet challenging exercise, as it can considerably improve the final result but often involves inaccurate and cumbersome entropy…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-12-30 Antoine Blanchard , Themistoklis Sapsis

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

A common problem in disciplines of applied Statistics research such as Astrostatistics is of estimating the posterior distribution of relevant parameters. Typically, the likelihoods for such models are computed via expensive experiments…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-02-07 Kirthevasan Kandasamy , Jeff Schneider , Barnabás Póczos

Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2018-06-27 Leon B. Lucy

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-02-21 Francesco Bartolucci , Luisa Scaccia , Alessio Farcomeni

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

Bayesian Inference is a powerful approach to data analysis that is based almost entirely on probability theory. In this approach, probabilities model {\it uncertainty} rather than randomness or variability. This thesis is composed of a…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2008-09-08 Brendon J. Brewer

We review the Bayesian theory of semiparametric inference following Bickel and Kleijn (2012) and Kleijn and Knapik (2013). After an overview of efficiency in parametric and semiparametric estimation problems, we consider the Bernstein-von…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-05-22 B. J. K. Kleijn