相关论文: Predicting Smoking Events with a Time-Varying Semi…

Smoking of tobacco is predicted to cause approximately six million deaths worldwide in 2014. Responding effectively to this epidemic requires a thorough understanding of how smoking behaviour is transmitted and modified. Here, we present a…

Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex…

Student procrastination and cramming for deadlines are major challenges in online learning environments, with negative educational and well-being side effects. Modeling student activities in continuous time and predicting their next study…

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Smoking continues to be a major preventable cause of death worldwide, affecting millions through damage to the heart, metabolism, liver, and kidneys. However, current medical screening methods often miss the early warning signs of…

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help…

Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

Critically ill patients in regular wards are vulnerable to unanticipated adverse events which require prompt transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU). To allow for accurate prognosis of deteriorating patients, we develop a novel…

Sequences of events including infectious disease outbreaks, social network activities, and crimes are ubiquitous and the data on such events carry essential information about the underlying diffusion processes between communities (e.g.,…

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and…

We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Smoking behavior and awareness co-spread through social interactions, giving rise to coupled contagion processes on social contact networks. In addition to initiation and cessation, awareness of the harmful effects of smoking plays an…

Human behavior drives a range of complex social, urban, and economic systems, yet understanding its structure and dynamics at the individual level remains an open question. From credit card transactions to communications data, human…

The use of office measurement of Blood Pressure (BP) as well as of the mean on day-time, on night-time or on 24h does not accurately describe the changes of the BP circadian rhythm. Moreover, several risk factors affect this rhythm but…

Event history data from sports competitions have recently drawn increasing attention in sports analytics to generate data-driven strategies. Such data often exhibit self-excitation in the event occurrence and dependence within event…

The use of electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) is increasing among adolescents. This is problematic since consuming nicotine at an early age can cause harmful effects in developing teenager's brain and health. Additionally, the use of…

Modeling event dynamics is central to many disciplines. Patterns in observed event arrival times are commonly modeled using point processes. Such event arrival data often exhibits self-exciting, heterogeneous and sporadic trends, which is…