相关论文: Optimal Instrument Selection using Bayesian Model …

Economic modeling in the presence of endogeneity is subject to model uncertainty at both the instrument and covariate level. We propose a Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging (2SBMA) methodology that extends the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS)…

The two-stage least-squares (2SLS) estimator is known to be biased when its first-stage fit is poor. I show that better first-stage prediction can alleviate this bias. In a two-stage linear regression model with Normal noise, I consider…

Instrumental variables are a popular tool to infer causal effects under unobserved confounding, but choosing suitable instruments is challenging in practice. We propose gIVBMA, a Bayesian model averaging procedure that addresses this…

Instrumental variables estimation has gained considerable traction in recent decades as a tool for causal inference, particularly amongst empirical researchers. This paper makes three contributions. First, we provide a detailed theoretical…

We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign of one or more first stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single instrument, there…

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear.…

Two-stage least squares (TSLS) estimators and variants thereof are widely used to infer the effect of an exposure on an outcome using instrumental variables (IVs). They belong to a wider class of two-stage IV estimators, which are based on…

Instrumental variable analysis is a widely used method to estimate causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. When the instruments, exposure and outcome are not measured in the same sample, Angrist and Krueger (1992)…

We propose a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator whose first stage is the equal-weighted average over a complete subset with $k$ instruments among $K$ available, which we call the complete subset averaging (CSA) 2SLS. The approximate…

We develop a method to perform model averaging in two-stage linear regression systems subject to endogeneity. Our method extends an existing Gibbs sampler for instrumental variables to incorporate a component of model uncertainty. Direct…

We develop a Stata command $\texttt{csa2sls}$ that implements the complete subset averaging two-stage least squares (CSA2SLS) estimator in Lee and Shin (2021). The CSA2SLS estimator is an alternative to the two-stage least squares estimator…

In this paper, I show that classic two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimates are highly unstable with weak instruments. I propose a ridge estimator (ridge IV) and show that it is asymptotically normal even with weak instruments, whereas 2SLS…

A novel estimation approach for a general class of semi-parametric multivariate time series models is introduced where the conditional mean is modeled through parametric functions. The focus of the estimation is the conditional mean…

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV)…

Instrumental variable is an essential tool for addressing unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Two stage predictor substitution (2SPS) estimator and two stage residual inclusion(2SRI) are two commonly used approaches in applying…

We propose a novel estimation procedure for models with endogenous variables in the presence of spatial correlation based on Eigenvector Spatial Filtering. The procedure, called Moran's $I$ 2-Stage Lasso (Mi-2SL), uses a two-stage Lasso…

This paper develops a Mean Group Instrumental Variables (MGIV) estimator for spatial dynamic panel data models with interactive effects, under large N and T asymptotics. Unlike existing approaches that typically impose slope-parameter…

We offer straightforward theoretical results that justify incorporating machine learning in the standard linear instrumental variable setting. The key idea is to use machine learning, combined with sample-splitting, to predict the treatment…

The linear instrumental variable (IV) model is widely used in observational studies, yet its validity hinges on strong assumptions. Classical specification tests such as the Sargan-Hansen J test are limited to overidentified settings and…

This paper addresses the weak instruments problem in linear instrumental variable models from a Bayesian perspective. The new approach has two components. First, a novel predictor-dependent shrinkage prior is developed for the many…