相关论文: An Updated Solar Cycle 25 Prediction with AFT: The…

Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows well…

The process of the Sun's polar field cancellation reversal commences with the emergence of new cycle Hale's polarity active regions. Once the Sun undergoes polarity reversal, typically occurring near the peak of solar activity, it begins…

The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…

Solar polar fields are essential for the solar cycle and the heliospheric magnetic field. Cycle 25 is now entering its declining phase, the critical period during which most of the cycle's polar fields are established. Therefore, reliable…

Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…

Aims. We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods. We measure the axial dipole moment using…

The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide…

Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and…

The choice of free parameters in surface flux transport (SFT) models describing the evolution of the large-scale poloidal magnetic field of the Sun is critical for the correct reproduction of the polar magnetic flux built up during a solar…

Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport…

The solar surface magnetic field is fundamental for modeling the coronal magnetic field, studying the solar dynamo, and predicting solar cycle strength. We perform a continuous simulation of the surface magnetic field from 2010 to 2024,…

To reproduce the weak magnetic field on the polar caps of the Sun observed during the declining phase of cycle 23 poses a challenge to surface flux transport models since this cycle has not been particularly weak. We use a well-calibrated…

Accurately modeling the solar magnetic field is important for understanding long-term solar activity and space weather, but it is challenging due to limited observations, especially near the poles. The Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model…

The Sun's surface field, especially the polar field, sets the boundary condition for the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields, but also provides us insight into the dynamo process. The evolution of the polar fields results from the…

The historical reconstruction of the Sun's surface magnetic field remains a persistent challenge, limiting our ability to investigate the long-term global properties of the Sun, including the evolution of the large-scale magnetic field,…

We could infer a secular decreasing trend in the poloidal to toroidal solar magnetic flux amplification factor ( Af) using geomagnetic observations ( classic and IHV corrected aa indices) during the sunspot cycles 9-23. A similar decreasing…

Observations the Sun's photospheric magnetic field are often confined to the Sun-Earth line. Surface flux transport (SFT) models, such as the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model, simulate the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field to…

Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…

As each solar cycle progresses, remnant magnetic flux from active regions (ARs) migrates poleward to cancel the old-cycle polar field. We describe this polarity reversal process during Cycle 24 using four years (2010.33--2014.33) of…

We examine the temporal changes in both solar polar magnetic field (PMF) at latitudes $\ge$ $45^{\circ}$ and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU during solar cycles 21--24 with emphasis on the recent activity changes after July 2015,…