相关论文: Conditional Tail-Related Risk Estimation Using Com…

This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…

A theoretical expression is derived for the mean squared error of a nonparametric estimator of the tail dependence coefficient, depending on a threshold that defines which rank delimits the tails of a distribution. We propose a new method…

This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the distribution of a response variable conditioned on observing some factors. The proposed approach possesses desirable properties of flexibility, interpretability, tractability and…

GARCH models are useful tools in the investigation of phenomena, where volatility changes are prominent features, like most financial data. The parameter estimation via quasi maximum likelihood (QMLE) and its properties are by now well…

This paper proposes a maximum-likelihood approach to jointly estimate marginal conditional quantiles of multivariate response variables in a linear regression framework. We consider a slight reparameterization of the Multivariate Asymmetric…

In this paper, we generalize the parametric delta-VaR method from portfolios with normally distributed risk factors to portfolios with elliptically distributed ones. We treat both the expected shortfall and the Value-at-Risk of such…

Imitation learning algorithms learn viable policies by imitating an expert's behavior when reward signals are not available. Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) is a state-of-the-art algorithm for learning policies when the…

The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…

This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…

This paper concerns sequential computation of risk measures for financial data and asks how, given a risk measurement procedure, we can tell whether the answers it produces are `correct'. We draw the distinction between `external' and…

Generally, in the financial literature, the notion of quadratic VaR is implicitly confused with the Delta-Gamma VaR, because more authors dealt with portfolios that contains derivatives instruments. In this paper, we postpone to estimate…

We introduce a novel method to simultaneously perform variable selection and estimation in the joint frailty model of recurrent and terminal events using the Broken Adaptive Ridge Regression penalty. The BAR penalty can be summarized as an…

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES) are the two most popular risk measures in banking and insurance regulation. To bridge between the two regulatory risk measures, the Probability Equivalent Level of VaR-ES (PELVE) was…

It is known that the estimating equations for quantile regression (QR) can be solved using an EM algorithm in which the M-step is computed via weighted least squares, with weights computed at the E-step as the expectation of independent…

Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…

The sum of Log-normal variates is encountered in many challenging applications such as in performance analysis of wireless communication systems and in financial engineering. Several approximation methods have been developed in the…

Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…

It is well known that Expected Shortfall (also called Average Value-at-Risk) is a convex risk measure, i. e. Expected Shortfall of a convex linear combination of arbitrary risk positions is not greater than a convex linear combination with…