相关论文: Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux…
Magnetic fields generated in the Sun's interior by the solar dynamo mechanism drive solar activity over a range of time-scales. While space-based observations of the Sun's corona exist only for few decades, direct sunspot observations exist…
The paper presents a study of a solar dynamo model operating in the bulk of the convection zone with the toroidal magnetic field flux concentrated in the subsurface rotational shear layer. We explore how this type of dynamo may depend on…
The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…
Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows well…
The solar activity cycle is successfully modeled by the flux transport dynamo, in which the meridional circulation of the Sun plays an important role. Most of the kinematic dynamo simulations assume a one-cell structure of the meridional…
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…
The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…
We review recent advances and results in enhancing and developing helioseismic analysis methods and in solar data assimilation. In the first part of this paper we will focus on selected developments in time-distance and global…
We show how magnetic observations of the Sun can be used in conjunction with an axisymmetric flux-transport solar dynamo model in order to estimate the large-scale meridional circulation throughout the convection zone. Our innovative…
We could infer a secular decreasing trend in the poloidal to toroidal solar magnetic flux amplification factor ( Af) using geomagnetic observations ( classic and IHV corrected aa indices) during the sunspot cycles 9-23. A similar decreasing…
Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly…
Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…
The magnetic activity of the Sun, as manifested in the sunspot cycle, originates deep within its convection zone through a dynamo mechanism which involves non-trivial interactions between the plasma and magnetic field in the solar interior.…
Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in…
It can be shown on observational grounds that two basic effects of dynamo theory for solar activity - production of the toroidal field from the poloidal one by differential rotation and reverse conversion of the toroidal field to the…
A phenomenological model is presented for the quantitative description of individual solar cycles' features, such as onset, intensity, evolution, in terms of the number of M and X-class solar flares. The main elements of the model are the…
Previously unobservable mirror asymmetry of the solar magnetic field -- a key ingredient of the dynamo mechanism which is believed to drive the 11-year activity cycle -- has now been measured. This was achieved through systematic monitoring…
The theory of the solar/stellar activity cycles is presented, based on the mean-field concept in magnetohydrodynamics. A new approach to the formulation of the electromotive force and the theory of differential rotation and meridional…
Coupled flux transport and magneto-frictional simulations are extended to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from the start of Solar Cycle 23 in 1996. By simplifying the dynamics,…