相关论文: Evaluating Ex Ante Counterfactual Predictions Usin…

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference…

In clinical trials, inferences on clinical outcomes are often made conditional on specific selective processes. For instance, only when a treatment demonstrates a significant effect on the primary outcome, further analysis is conducted to…

In the context of medical decision making, counterfactual prediction enables clinicians to predict treatment outcomes of interest under alternative courses of therapeutic actions given observed patient history. In this work, we present…

Counterfactual distributions are important ingredients for policy analysis and decomposition analysis in empirical economics. In this article we develop modeling and inference tools for counterfactual distributions based on regression…

In observational studies, treatment may be adapted to covariates at several times without a fixed protocol, in continuous time. Treatment influences covariates, which influence treatment, which influences covariates, and so on. Then even…

Evaluating treatment effect heterogeneity widely informs treatment decision making. At the moment, much emphasis is placed on the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect via flexible machine learning algorithms. While these…

We develop a novel method for counterfactual analysis based on observational data using prediction intervals for units under different exposures. Unlike methods that target heterogeneous or conditional average treatment effects of an…

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Increasing the success rate of a process, i.e. the percentage of cases that end in a positive outcome, is a recurrent process improvement goal. At runtime, there are often certain actions (a.k.a. treatments) that workers may execute to lift…

In an era where diverse and complex data are increasingly accessible, the precise prediction of individual treatment effects (ITE) becomes crucial across fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. Current state-of-the-art…

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and…

Causal inference analysis is the estimation of the effects of actions on outcomes. In the context of healthcare data this means estimating the outcome of counter-factual treatments (i.e. including treatments that were not observed) on a…

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Accurate estimation of counterfactual outcomes in high-dimensional data is crucial for decision-making and understanding causal relationships and intervention outcomes in various domains, including healthcare, economics, and social…

The propensity score is a common tool for estimating the causal effect of a binary treatment in observational data. In this setting, matching, subclassification, imputation, or inverse probability weighting on the propensity score can…

Counterfactual mean estimators such as difference-in-differences and synthetic control have grown into workhorse tools for program evaluation. Inference for these estimators is well-developed in settings where all post-treatment data is…

Counterfactual inference provides a mathematical framework for reasoning about hypothetical outcomes under alternative interventions, bridging causal reasoning and predictive modeling. We present a counterfactual inference framework for…

Causal inference in a program evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is…