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This study presents a probabilistic surrogate model for localized wildfire spread based on a conditional flow matching algorithm. The approach models fire progression as a stochastic process by learning the conditional distribution of fire…

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting…

Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread…

The ability to forecast grass fire spread could be of a great importance for agencies making decisions about prescribed burns. However, the usefulness of the models used for fire-spread predictions is limited by the time required for…

Reduced-order models of flame dynamics can be used to predict and mitigate the emergence of thermoacoustic oscillations in the design of gas turbine and rocket engines. This process is hindered by the fact that these models, although often…

This simulation study compares statistical approaches for estimating extreme quantile regression, with a specific application to fire risk forecasting. A simulation-based framework is designed to evaluate the effectiveness of different…

In this paper, we assess and develop a climate service focused on the production of seasonal predictions for summer wildfires in a Mediterranean region through a participatory approach with end-users. We start by building a data-driven…

The current WRF-Fire model starts the fire from a given ignition point at a given time. We want to start the model from a given fire perimeter at a given time instead. However, the fuel balance and the state of the atmosphere depend on the…

As wildfires are expected to become more frequent and severe, improved prediction models are vital to mitigating risk and allocating resources. With remote sensing data, valuable spatiotemporal statistical models can be created and used for…

This study explores the potential for predicting turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) from more readily acquired temperature data using temperature profiles and turbulence data collected concurrently at 10 Hz during a small experimental…

There is high demand on fire simulations, in both scale and quantity. We present a multi-pronged approach to improving the time and energy required to meet these demands. We show the ability of a custom machine learning surrogate model to…

Accurate assessment of fuel conditions is a prerequisite for fire ignition and behavior prediction, and risk management. The method proposed herein leverages diverse data sources including Landsat-8 optical imagery, Sentinel-1 (C-band)…

We present an overview of a modeling environment, consisting of a coupled atmosphere-wildfire model, utilities for visualization, data processing, and diagnostics, open source software repositories, and a community wiki. The fire model,…

Background. Wildfire research uses ensemble methods to analyze fire behaviors and assess uncertainties. Nonetheless, current research methods are either confined to simple models or complex simulations with limits. Modern computing tools…

Fuel-flexible, low-carbon combustion systems need to accommodate methane/hydrogen mixtures with air and exhaust-gas dilution. To develop these, we require accurate and efficient correlations for laminar flame speed (LFS). In this work, we…

Significant progress has been made on the model development for simulating turbulent reacting flows. As a consequence, we are currently in a position where key-physical aspects of fairly complex combustion processes are well understood at a…

Fine-grained fire prediction plays a crucial role in emergency response. Infrared images and fire masks provide complementary thermal and boundary information, yet current methods are predominantly limited to binary mask modeling with…

We present a methodology to change the state of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire spread code SFIRE, based on Rothermel's formula and the level set method, and with a fuel moisture model. The fire perimeter…

The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational…

Ignition capability is a critical design constraint for aeronautical gas turbines. However the current trend toward overall lean burn is detrimental to the engine ignition and relight and the ignition system must be adapted to ensure a fast…