相关论文: A Swiss Army Infinitesimal Jackknife

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become indispensable tools across various applications, making it more important than ever to ensure the quality and the trustworthiness of their outputs. This has led to growing interest in uncertainty…

Distance metric learning aims to learn from the given training data a valid distance metric, with which the similarity between data samples can be more effectively evaluated for classification. Metric learning is often formulated as a…

Estimating the model evidence - or mariginal likelihood of the data - is a notoriously difficult task for finite and infinite mixture models and we reexamine here different Monte Carlo techniques advocated in the recent literature, as well…

The delimitation of biological species, i.e., deciding which individuals belong to the same species and whether and how many different species are represented in a data set, is key to the conservation of biodiversity. Much existing work…

As a technique that can compactly represent complex patterns, machine learning has significant potential for predictive inference. K-fold cross-validation (CV) is the most common approach to ascertaining the likelihood that a machine…

We study the problem of evaluating the excess risk of large-scale empirical risk minimization under the square loss. Leveraging the idea of wild refitting and resampling, we assume only black-box access to the training algorithm and develop…

In recent years, quantum machine learning has seen a substantial increase in the use of variational quantum circuits (VQCs). VQCs are inspired by artificial neural networks, which achieve extraordinary performance in a wide range of AI…

Many machine learning models have important structural tuning parameters that cannot be directly estimated from the data. The common tactic for setting these parameters is to use resampling methods, such as cross--validation or the…

To identify the estimand in missing data problems and observational studies, it is common to base the statistical estimation on the "missing at random" and "no unmeasured confounder" assumptions. However, these assumptions are unverifiable…

Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable, and predictors are trained in a memoryless fashion. However, these assumptions and constraints are…

Cross-validation is one of the most popular model selection methods in statistics and machine learning. Despite its wide applicability, traditional cross validation methods tend to select overfitting models, due to the ignorance of the…

Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use…

The challenge of identifying the best feasible arm within a fixed budget has attracted considerable interest in recent years. However, a notable gap remains in the literature: the exact exponential rate at which the error probability…

Clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes typically include missing data due to missed assessments or structural missingness of outcomes after intercurrent events handled with a hypothetical strategy. Approaches based on Bayesian random…

This paper explores useful modifications of the recent development in contrastive learning via novel probabilistic modeling. We derive a particular form of contrastive loss named Joint Contrastive Learning (JCL). JCL implicitly involves the…

Infinitesimal contraction analysis provides exponential convergence rates between arbitrary pairs of trajectories of a system by studying the system's linearization. An essentially equivalent viewpoint arises through stability analysis of a…

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

Model averaging is an important alternative to model selection with attractive prediction accuracy. However, its application to high-dimensional data remains under-explored. We propose a high-dimensional model averaging method via…

Finite linear least squares is one of the core problems of numerical linear algebra, with countless applications across science and engineering. Consequently, there is a rich and ongoing literature on algorithms for solving linear least…

Standard evaluations of Bayesian deep learning methods assume that metric estimates are reliable, but we show this assumption fails under data scarcity. Method rankings are not only unreliable at small $n$, but also dataset-dependent in…