相关论文: Bayesian Dynamic Modeling and Monitoring of Networ…

Traffic flow count data in networks arise in many applications, such as automobile or aviation transportation, certain directed social network contexts, and Internet studies. Using an example of Internet browser traffic flow through…

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

The recently introduced class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models (SGDLMs) defines an ability to scale on-line Bayesian analysis and forecasting to higher-dimensional time series. This paper advances the methodology of SGDLMs,…

Estimation of origin-destination (OD) demand plays a key role in successful transportation studies. In this paper, we consider the estimation of time-varying day-to-day OD flows given data on traffic volumes in a transportation network for…

We introduce a new approach for decoupling trends (drift) and changepoints (shifts) in time series. Our locally adaptive model-based approach for robustly decoupling combines Bayesian trend filtering and machine learning based…

Changes in the timescales at which complex systems evolve are essential to predicting critical transitions and catastrophic failures. Disentangling the timescales of the dynamics governing complex systems remains a key challenge. With this…

Anomaly detection is a widely studied task for a broad variety of data types; among them, multiple time series appear frequently in applications, including for example, power grids and traffic networks. Detecting anomalies for multiple time…

We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…

Learning the network structure of a large graph is computationally demanding, and dynamically monitoring the network over time for any changes in structure threatens to be more challenging still. This paper presents a two-stage method for…

We review theory and methodology of the class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models (SGDLMs) that provide flexibility, parsimony and scalability of multivariate time series analysis. Discussion includes core theoretical aspects…

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) provide flexible function approximations for a wide variety of applications when the input variables are in the form of images or spatial data. Although CNNs often outperform traditional statistical…

Differential networks (DN) are important tools for modeling the changes in conditional dependencies between multiple samples. A Bayesian approach for estimating DNs, from the classical viewpoint, is introduced with a computationally…

Bayesian computation for filtering and forecasting analysis is developed for a broad class of dynamic models. The ability to scale-up such analyses in non-Gaussian, nonlinear multivariate time series models is advanced through the…

We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…

A current challenge for data management systems is to support the construction and maintenance of machine learning models over data that is large, multi-dimensional, and evolving. While systems that could support these tasks are emerging,…

Motivation: Several different threads of research have been proposed for modeling and mining temporal data. On the one hand, approaches such as dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) provide a formal probabilistic basis to model relationships…

Differential Networks (DNs), tools that encapsulate interactions within intricate systems, are brought under the Bayesian lens in this research. A novel na{\i}ve Bayesian adaptive graphical elastic net (BAE) prior is introduced to estimate…

While anomaly detection in static networks has been extensively studied, only recently, researchers have focused on dynamic networks. This trend is mainly due to the capacity of dynamic networks in representing complex physical, biological,…

Bayesian networks are a versatile and powerful tool to model complex phenomena and the interplay of their components in a probabilistically principled way. Moving beyond the comparatively simple case of completely observed, static data,…

In Bayesian structure learning, we are interested in inferring a distribution over the directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure of Bayesian networks, from data. Defining such a distribution is very challenging, due to the combinatorially…