相关论文: Modeling Risk and Return using Dirichlet Process P…

Time series data may exhibit clustering over time and, in a multiple time series context, the clustering behavior may differ across the series. This paper is motivated by the Bayesian non--parametric modeling of the dependence between the…

In social science research, understanding latent structures in populations through survey data with categorical responses is a common and important task. Traditional methods like Factor Analysis and Latent Class Analysis have limitations,…

Clustering multivariate binary data is of interest in many scientific fields, including ecology, biomedicine, and social policy. Beyond heuristic clustering algorithms, such data can be modelled using multivariate Bernoulli mixture models.…

In this paper, we study the conditional Dirichlet process (cDP) when a functional of a random distribution is specified. Specifically, we apply the cDP to the functional condition model, a nonparametric model in which a finite-dimensional…

Dependent nonparametric processes extend distributions over measures, such as the Dirichlet process and the beta process, to give distributions over collections of measures, typically indexed by values in some covariate space. Such models…

In theory, Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models are well suited to streaming data scenarios due to their ability to adapt model complexity with the observed data. Unfortunately, such benefits have not been fully realized in practice;…

We introduce an equilibrium asset pricing model, which we build on the relationship between a novel risk measure, the Expected Downside Risk (EDR) and the expected return. On the one hand, our proposed risk measure uses a nonparametric…

In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…

Forecast combination integrates information from various sources by consolidating multiple forecast results from the target time series. Instead of the need to select a single optimal forecasting model, this paper introduces a deep learning…

We propose a distributionally robust return-risk model for Markov decision processes (MDPs) under risk and reward ambiguity. The proposed model optimizes the weighted average of mean and percentile performances, and it covers the…

Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) models have been increasingly employed to specify random partition models that take into account possible patterns within the covariates. Furthermore, to deal with large numbers of covariates, methods for…

Matrix Dirichlet processes, in reference to their reversible measure, appear in a natural way in many different models in probability. Applying the language of diffusion operators and the method of boundary equations, we describe Dirichlet…

We investigated the use of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) combined with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), feature engineering and machine learning algorithms to optimize trading decisions. We used five, two, and one year samples of hourly…

Dirichlet processes (DP) are widely applied in Bayesian nonparametric modeling. However, in their basic form they do not directly integrate dependency information among data arising from space and time. In this paper, we propose location…

Consider a Dirichlet process mixture model (DPM) with random precision parameter $\alpha$, inducing $K_n$ clusters over $n$ observations through its latent random partition. Our goal is to specify the prior distribution…

Financial time series have historically been assumed to be a martingale process under the Random Walk hypothesis. Instead of making investment decisions using the raw prices alone, various multimodal pattern matching algorithms have been…

Statistical agencies and other institutions collect data under the promise to protect the confidentiality of respondents. When releasing microdata samples, the risk that records can be identified must be assessed. To this aim, a widely…

With the fast development of quantitative portfolio optimization in financial engineering, lots of AI-based algorithmic trading strategies have demonstrated promising results, among which reinforcement learning begins to manifest…

This paper presents a new model called infinite mixtures of multivariate Gaussian processes, which can be used to learn vector-valued functions and applied to multitask learning. As an extension of the single multivariate Gaussian process,…

The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…